I. Core Driver Analysis
On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. This marks the first rate cut since December 2024, effectively reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and supporting gold prices.
The Fed forecasts an additional 50-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and plans to maintain an accommodative monetary policy path in the coming years. The prolonged low-interest-rate environment is generally favorable for gold. Powell indicated that the policy focus is shifting from inflation to employment, suggesting more measures to support economic growth.
However, Powell also emphasized that the rate cut is a risk management decision and does not require rapid adjustments to interest rates. This cautious stance may limit short-term gains in gold prices. Amid mixed bullish and bearish factors, gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset remains solid.
II. Gold Technical Layout Strategy
Gold prices have moved in a unilateral upward trend as anticipated, reaching a high of 3685.47 and currently trading near 3690.00. The dual moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bullish alignment, indicating short-term strength.
Trading Recommendations:
- Open long positions near the support level of 3676.00
- Stop loss: Below 3666.00
- Target: Near 3705.00
III. Silver Technical Layout Strategy
Silver has retreated to the support level of 41.970 as expected and then rebounded, reaching the target of 42.900 and currently trading near 43.100. The dual moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bullish alignment, suggesting a high probability of short-term gains.
Trading Recommendations:
- Open long positions near the support level of 42.650
- Stop loss: Below 42.350
- Target: Near 43.150
Risk Warning: Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their risk tolerance.