[Market Focus Analysis]
1. Fed officials are intensively releasing hawkish signals. Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasized that inflation remains significantly above the 2% target and could continue to deviate for years, stressing that easing restrictive policies must be "extremely cautious." St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Bostic echo this view, with the former stating limited room for further easing and the latter explicitly saying no additional cuts are needed this year. Policy divergence shows a "nine hawks and ten doves" split: among 19 officials, 9 advocate for only one more cut or a pause this year, while 10 support two or more. Market odds for a 25 basis point cut in November have dropped from 65% to 58%, with Powell's upcoming speech serving as a key signal to calibrate the policy path.
2. Israel's military operations against Lebanon have escalated to a "war level," launching Operation Northern Arrows with over a thousand airstrikes on more than 1,300 Hezbollah targets, resulting in 492 deaths and 1,645 injuries. The Israeli military spokesperson stated that preparations for a ground invasion are complete, while Hezbollah has responded with new missiles targeting Israeli air bases. The US Defense Department has deployed additional troops to the Middle East, bringing the regional presence to 40,000, but has clearly opposed a ground invasion by Israel. The EU has warned of approaching "full-scale war," and France has called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting. The World Gold Council estimates that such conflicts could sustain a gold safe-haven premium for 6-9 months.
3. The market is closely watching the upcoming US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading (expected 53.5%). If the data exceeds expectations, it could reinforce the "economic resilience plus hawkish policy" combination, putting pressure on precious metals; if it falls short, it might activate dovish narratives and resonate with geopolitical risks. Options markets show gold's sensitivity to PMI data has reached a monthly high.
[Gold and Silver Technical Layout]
Gold
Daily chart: Price hits a new high at 3759.28, deviating from moving averages but with the bullish pattern intact
Hourly chart: Price moves along moving averages upward, maintaining a complete trend structure
Operation suggestion: Buy on pullback near 3720.00, stop loss at 3700.00, take profit at 3780.00
Silver
Daily chart: Price oscillates at high levels above 44.000, with the bullish trend continuing
Hourly chart: Moving averages in a bullish arrangement, with short-term momentum maintained
Operation suggestion: Buy near 43.500, stop loss at 43.300, take profit at 44.600
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