[Market Focus Analysis]
1. Fed Chair Powell and several officials have made frequent statements, further highlighting internal policy differences. In his first speech after the rate cut, Powell reiterated that "policy follows no preset path," emphasizing that current interest rates remain "slightly restrictive" and require balancing "upside inflation risks" with "downside employment risks." The market interprets this as "neutral to dovish," suggesting room for rate cuts this year if employment weakness persists beyond inflation pressures. CME data shows an 89.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 75.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis points cut in December, though hawkish comments are starting to curb expectations for aggressive easing.
2. Globally, no unexpected events have emerged in the economic or geopolitical spheres, with market focus centered on policy signals and data expectations. US economic data shows contradictory features: a weak job market (August non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs) alongside resilient retail sales (August month-over-month increase of 0.6%), complicating policy decisions. Powell noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation could "spread over multiple quarters," indicating ongoing short-term price pressures but anchoring long-term expectations at the 2% target, which eases market worries about "stagflation."
[Gold and Silver Technical Layout]
Gold
Daily chart: Closes with a doji-like candle at 3764.07, approaching the 3800.00 level, with a solid bullish pattern
Hourly chart: Slight high-level oscillation, maintaining an intact trend structure
Operation suggestion: Buy on pullback near 3740.00 on the 15-minute chart, stop loss at 3720.00, take profit at 3790.00
Silver
Daily chart: Closes with a doji at 44.027, oscillating at high levels to digest gains, with the bullish trend unchanged
Hourly chart: Upward channel structure intact, with effective moving average support
Operation suggestion: Buy near 43.800, stop loss at 43.500, take profit at 44.500
Risk Warning: Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.