[Market Focus Analysis]
1. Fed Chair Powell maintains a neutral to dovish stance, emphasizing that interest rates remain "moderately restrictive" and require balancing upside inflation risks with downside employment risks. He noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation could last several quarters, while leaving room for long-term easing. The market continues to price in two rate cuts this year, with CME data showing a 62% probability of a cumulative 50 basis points cut in December. US economic data is mixed: September Conference Board consumer confidence index dropped 6.9 points to 98.7, the largest decline since August 2021; however, core retail sales grew 0.3% month-over-month, indicating domestic resilience. This contradictory pattern keeps precious metals in high-level oscillation.
2. The Israel-Lebanon conflict has become a new focal point in the Middle East, with Israeli forces launching four rounds of major airstrikes on Lebanon, resulting in at least 569 deaths. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant inspected simulated ground attack units, Prime Minister Netanyahu held high-security meetings, and the nation is under emergency status, signaling potential escalation. Safe-haven funds show structural inflows: Global central banks increased gold purchases by 15% in September, and the Russian central bank added silver to its reserves; silver benefits from its precious metal attributes combined with industrial demand (2024 global silver supply-demand gap at 149 million ounces).
3. The risk of a US government shutdown is intensifying, with only 6 days until the September 30 deadline. Congress parties remain divided on spending bills, and temporary measures have not been passed. If the shutdown lasts more than 2 weeks, it could reduce Q4 GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points. The market is already pricing in fiscal uncertainty, with the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) rising to 22 (a new high since August), and funds shifting from US stocks to precious metals ETFs.
[Gold and Silver Technical Layout]
Gold
Daily chart: Price holds near 3765.48, deviating from moving averages but with the bullish pattern intact
Hourly chart: Oscillating between moving averages to form a new pivot, with short-term support at 3750.00
Operation suggestion: Buy near 3750.00, stop loss at 3750.00, take profit at 3780.00
Silver
Daily chart: Oscillating at high levels above 43.664, with the bullish trend continuing
Hourly chart: Consolidating between moving averages, with short-term momentum weakening but the structure intact
Operation suggestion: Buy near 43.600, stop loss at 43.500, take profit at 44.200
Risk Warning: Any investment involves risks, including the risk of capital loss. This suggestion does not constitute specific investment advice; investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions.