Market Focus Analysis
1. The Fed is divided into three main factions, causing market uncertainty. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts, directly opposing San Francisco Fed President Daly's support for further cuts. Fed Governor Kugler takes a middle-ground dovish stance. External pressure is mounting, with Treasury Secretary Yellen calling for a signal of 100-150 basis points in cuts. This policy uncertainty has confused market expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis points cut in November dropping to 55%, and the chance of a total 50 basis points cut in December falling to 59%.
2. The White House has signaled "permanent layoffs," raising shutdown risks to a new level. The Office of Management and Budget has instructed federal agencies to plan for permanent staff reductions, breaking from the usual temporary furloughs. Negotiations between parties are stalled, with President Trump canceling talks with Democrats and the House of Representatives adjourned until October 1. If a shutdown leads to permanent layoffs, it could drag down fourth-quarter GDP by up to 0.5%. Safe-haven demand is rising, with gold ETF holdings increasing for eight straight days.
3. The US economy shows a mixed picture of "strong real estate and weak manufacturing." August new home sales hit an annualized rate of 800,000 units (above the expected 650,000), up 20.5% month-over-month to the fastest pace since early 2022. However, the September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI initial reading dropped to 52 (from 53 previously). A wave of key data releases is starting, including the second-quarter GDP final value and core PCE price index final value tonight. Stronger-than-expected data could strengthen hawkish views, while weak data might boost dovish arguments.
Gold and Silver Technical Layout
Gold
Daily level: Price is oscillating upward from 3736.00, with the bullish pattern intact.
Hourly level: After a pullback, it has rebounded above the moving averages, showing a short-term upward bias.
Operation suggestion: Buy near 3740.00, with stop-loss at 3720.00 and take-profit at 3780.00.
Silver
Daily level: It has broken above 44.654 to a new high, with strong bullish momentum.
Hourly level: After breaking the pivot, the trend is continuing, with moving averages in a bullish arrangement.
Operation suggestion: Buy near 44.200, with stop-loss at 44.000 and take-profit at 45.000.
Risk Warning: Trading markets have unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions based on their personal risk tolerance.