【Market Focus Analysis】

Divergent statements from Federal Reserve officials have intensified policy uncertainty. Four core officials made intensive remarks with distinctly different stances:

1. Radical dove Milan advocated for "another 50-basis-point rate cut";
2. Cautious dove Cook emphasized that "a December rate cut is possible but not a foregone conclusion";
3. Hawk Goolsbee warned that "inflation has not met the target";
4. Centrist Daly maintained vague expressions.

Three of these officials hold FOMC voting rights this year. This "lack of consensus" has weakened expectations for policy consistency. The market’s probability of a December rate cut remains at 65%, a significant drop from 94% a week ago, reflecting the market’s deadlock in "policy guessing." The U.S. Dollar Index surged to 100.00 before retreating to 99.80, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 4.06%.

The China-U.S. trade agreement has triggered a chain reaction. The China-U.S. "grand deal" has aroused dissatisfaction from the EU—Brussels is discussing a "physical tariff" mechanism and demanding reciprocal treatment from China. China-EU dialogue on export controls has started, but reaching a consensus is difficult, forming a pattern of "eased China-U.S. relations and escalating China-EU disputes."

The U.S. Treasury Secretary threatened to "impose additional tariffs if China reimposes rare earth controls," indicating that potential risks of trade frictions have not been fully eliminated. Gold prices are repeatedly pulled by fluctuating trade sentiment, while silver has received support due to expectations of industrial demand related to rare earths.

The trends of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries have provided a buffer for precious metals. The U.S. Dollar Index has shown the characteristic of "surging and then retreating," with strong resistance at the 100.00 mark. The U.S. Treasury market has exhibited the feature of "short-end volatility and long-end stabilization": the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 3.47%, and the 10-year yield stabilized at 4.06%. The October ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7, remaining in contraction for eight consecutive months. The pattern of "fading short-term U.S. dollar strength and solid long-end interest rate support" has created conditions for precious metals to stabilize amid fluctuations.

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: The price is around 4,002.28, trading below the moving average but with an upward slope, suggesting potential volatility.
• Hourly Chart Level: Oscillating between moving averages, with directional guidance temporarily ineffective.
• Trading Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the 3,960.00-4,050.00 range; set stop-loss if the range is broken.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: The price is around 48.068, trading below the moving average but approaching moving average support.
• Hourly Chart Level: Declining along the moving average; focus on whether it can break through moving average resistance.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider buying on dips around 47.500, with a stop-loss at 47.500 and a take-profit at 48.300.

Risk Warning

All investments involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. This recommendation does not constitute specific investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment objectives, and market conditions.