【Morning Market Brief】
A rare split has emerged within the Federal Reserve regarding a December interest rate cut, with three officials opposing a rate cut in the near term. As a result, the market’s expected probability of a rate cut has dropped from 92% to 63%. Affected by this, gold saw an intraday volatility of $68.00 yesterday, touching a low of $3,962.20 per ounce and a high of $4,030.57 per ounce, before finally closing at $4,001.38 per ounce, a slight decline of 0.03%. Currently, the fundamental factors for gold prices present a mixed picture of bullish and bearish forces, with short-term trends dominated by geopolitical events.
【Analysis of Core Influencing Factors】
- Divergent Policy Expectations: There is a clear split within the Federal Reserve on a December rate cut. Governor Cook stated that "a rate cut in December is still possible," and the market is focusing on the release of nonfarm payroll data and PMI figures this Friday.
- Escalating Geopolitical Risks: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, with the United States planning to provide "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine. The conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, and Iranian nuclear facilities are suspected of being attacked. Intermittent safe-haven demand has provided support for gold prices.
- Technical Oscillation and Consolidation: After experiencing sharp volatility, gold prices have entered an oscillating phase. There is short-term rebound momentum, but significant resistance lies ahead.
【Morning Trading Strategy Guidelines】
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Key Levels: Support at $3,973.00/$4,000.00; Resistance at $4,030.00/$4,050.00
- Trading Idea:
- If gold stabilizes above $4,000.00, consider light-position long entries, with targets at $4,050.00-$4,082.00.
- If it breaks below $3,973.00 (stop-loss level), consider short entries when it rebounds to around $4,030.00, with a target at $3,940.00.
Silver (XAG/USD)
- Key Levels: Support at $47.000-$48.000; Resistance at $51.500-$52.500
- Trading Idea:
- Bulls can build positions in batches within the $47.000-$48.000 range, with a stop-loss at $46.000 and a target at $52.000.
- Bears can take short positions on rallies above $51.500, with a stop-loss at $52.500 and a target at $48.000.
Risk Warning
All investments involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. This recommendation does not constitute specific investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment objectives, and market conditions.