【Evening Market Brief】
There are obvious divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate cut path. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 99.87, exerting pressure on gold prices. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI in October contracted for the eighth consecutive month, and the weakening economic momentum provided safe-haven support for gold. Intraday, gold prices reached a high of $4,006.19 per ounce and a low of $3,966.43 per ounce, maintaining an overall volatile pattern.
【Analysis of Core Influencing Factors】
- Divergent Policy Expectations: Federal Reserve officials hold differing views on the interest rate cut path, and the market’s expectation of a rate cut in December has dropped from 100% to 65%.
- Weak Economic Data: The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to contract, and factory orders have declined, which enhances the safe-haven attribute of gold.
- Persistent Geopolitical Risks: China and Russia have deepened cooperation, and the risk of conflicts in the Middle East has not completely subsided, keeping safe-haven sentiment alive.
【Evening Trading Strategy Guidelines】
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Volatility Range: $3,970.00 - $4,030.00
- Trading Idea: Buy low and sell high within the range; after a breakout, light-position trades can be conducted in line with the trend.
- Medium-to-Long-Term Layout: When prices pull back below $3,900.00, batch positions for long trades can be established.
Silver (XAG/USD)
- Key Levels: Resistance at $49.000; Support at $47.380
- Trading Idea: Pay attention to the demand for photovoltaic stockpiling; after breaking through $49.000, trades can be conducted in line with the trend.
- Medium-to-Long-Term Target: $55.000 - $60.000
Risk Warning
All investments involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. This recommendation does not constitute specific investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment objectives, and market conditions.