【Morning Market Brief】
The U.S. Dollar Index broke above the integer level of 100 yesterday, closing at 100.17—a three-month high—suppressing the performance of dollar-denominated precious metals. Spot gold came under pressure and fell to around $3,930.00 per ounce, while silver dropped below $47.000 per ounce. The market is focusing on today’s release of the ADP Employment Report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; the performance of these data may affect the U.S. dollar’s trend and the short-term direction of precious metals.
【Analysis of Core Influencing Factors】
- Suppression from a Stronger U.S. Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index broke above the 100 level to a three-month high, increasing the cost of gold purchases for non-U.S. dollar investors.
- Fluctuating Policy Expectations: Federal Reserve officials hold divided attitudes towards a December interest rate cut, and the market’s expected probability of a December rate cut has fallen to 63%.
- Weakening Technical Outlook: Gold broke below the key support level of $3,940.00 on the daily chart, with the short-term technical structure leaning bearish.
【Morning Trading Strategy Guidelines】
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Key Levels: Support at $3,915.00; Resistance at $3,980.00/$4,000.00
- Trading Idea:
- If gold stabilizes above $3,915.00 and the ADP data is weak, consider light-position long entries, with targets at $3,950.00-$4,000.00.
- Consider short entries when gold rebounds to around $3,980.00, with a stop-loss at $4,000.00 and a target at $3,915.00.
Silver (XAG/USD)
- Key Levels: Support at $46.500; Resistance at $48.500
- Trading Idea:
- Focus on the support performance in the $46.500-$47.000 range.
- If silver breaks above $48.500, consider light-position follow-up entries.
Risk Warning
All investments involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. This recommendation does not constitute specific investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment objectives, and market conditions.