【Morning Market Brief】
Spot gold rose 1.30% on Tuesday, closing at $3,983.90 per ounce, with safe-haven buying providing a clear driving force; spot silver rose 2.00% to $48.100 per ounce. The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 36th day, setting a record for the longest in history. Coupled with weak ADP employment data, this has boosted gold’s safe-haven attribute. However, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy has limited the upside space for gold prices.
【Analysis of Core Influencing Factors】
- Resurgent Safe-Haven Demand: The prolonged U.S. government shutdown and repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation have driven safe-haven funds to flow into precious metals.
- Divergent Policy Expectations: Powell hinted that a rate cut in December is "far from a certainty," and the market’s expectation of a rate cut remains around 65%.
- Technical Stabilization and Rebound: After a pullback, gold prices have staged a technical rebound, breaking the short-term continuous downward trend.
【Morning Trading Strategy Guidelines】
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Volatility Range: $3,900.00 - $4,030.00
- Key Levels: Resistance at $4,000.00 - $4,030.00; Support at $3,900.00 - $3,950.00
- Trading Idea: Buy low and sell high within the range; after a breakout, trades can be conducted in line with the trend.
Silver (XAG/USD)
- Volatility Range: $46.000 - $50.000
- Key Levels: Resistance at $50.000; Support at $46.000 - $47.500
- Trading Idea: Focus on the support performance at $47.500; a breakout above $50.000 may accelerate the upward movement.
Risk Warning
The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.