【Market Focus Analysis】

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.25%, with the excess reserve rate and discount rate remaining stable in tandem. Fed Chair Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and clearly stated that "policy will not be tightened until a full recovery is achieved," dispelling market concerns about an earlier interest rate hike. The policy statement reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet at the current pace, maintaining a stable scale of quantitative easing. The probability of an interest rate cut in December remains around 52%, limiting the upward movement of U.S. Treasury yields.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict shows a "two-way escalation of attacks" trend. Russia launched 135 drones to attack multiple locations in Ukraine, with the Ukrainian military shooting down 108 of them; Ukraine launched a counterattack with nearly 100 drones targeting 10 regions in mainland Russia, damaging key facilities such as Lukoil's refinery (accounting for 5.6% of Russia's total refining capacity) and Kostroma Power Plant (accounting for 1.5% of Russia's total power generation). Belgium and the European Union held talks on freezing 140 billion euros of Russian assets, while the UK and Germany accelerated the development of long-range missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers, increasing the risk of a prolonged conflict.

The resilience of the U.S. economy poses a suppressing factor. U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October (the largest increase since July), and Trump expects the Q3 GDP growth rate to reach 4.2%. The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized at 7.1187. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels (compared with the expected decrease of 286,000 barrels), and the decline in oil prices weakened the demand for inflation hedging.

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: A candlestick with shadows closed at 3,976.93, trading below the moving average, with the slope flattening out.
• Hourly Chart Level: Wide-range oscillation; prices have retraced from the high of 4,019.61, and directional signals have failed.
• Trading Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the range of 3,920.00-4,030.00; set a stop-loss if the range is broken.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: The price closed at 47.986, trading below the moving average and approaching resistance from the moving average.
• Hourly Chart Level: Prices have retraced from the high of 48.782, leaning bearish below the moving average.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider short positions on rallies around 48.500, with a stop-loss at 48.800 and a take-profit at 47.500.

Risk Warning

The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.