【Market Focus Analysis】

1. The Federal Reserve's policy trends continue to dominate market sentiment, with expectations for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Global Central Bank Annual Meeting) building ahead of schedule. The market is focused on Fed Chair Powell's keynote speech at 22:00 on Friday. Goldman Sachs predicts that Powell will most likely reiterate the "slowing rate hikes" stance, expecting a 50 basis point (BP) rate hike in September and 25 BP hikes each in November and December, with the terminal interest rate target remaining in the 3.25%-3.5% range. Despite the risk of further rate hikes, the market generally believes the Fed tends to pursue gradual tightening. The probability of a rate hike in December has slightly dropped from 62% to 58%, and U.S. Treasury yields show a pattern of short-end pressure. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has edged down to 4.05%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
2. U.S. economic data shows structural divergence. The annual rate of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in July was 4.7%, a slight decrease from the previous reading of 4.8% and in line with expectations, confirming a marginal easing of inflation stickiness. However, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August rose to 55.2, higher than the previous 55.1, indicating that residents' concerns about the economic outlook have eased slightly. After the data release, the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated lower to 108.4253, falling 0.20% on the day, which enhanced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated gold.
3. There are no new signals of escalation in the global geopolitical situation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains in a stalemate, with no large-scale escalation of ground conflicts; the situation in the Middle East is relatively calm, and the confrontation between Israel and Hamas has not further intensified. There has been no substantive breakthrough in the China-U.S. tariff deadlock, and market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions continue to cool down. Safe-haven demand remains at a moderate level, and precious metals lack event-driven momentum.

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: A small bullish candlestick closed at 400.84, trading below the moving average but at a close distance, with the moving average flattening out.
• Hourly Chart Level: Volatility is obvious, awaiting range breakout signals.
• Trading Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the 3900.00-4050.00 range; set a stop-loss if the range is broken.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: A small bullish candlestick closed at 48.293, trading below the moving average, with obvious volatile characteristics.
• Hourly Chart Level: Fluctuating within a range, lacking a clear direction.
• Trading Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the 46.800-49.400 range; set a stop-loss if the range is broken.

Risk Warning

The trading market is subject to unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.