【Market Focus Analysis】

1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled at its November monetary policy meeting, lowering the target range to 4.5%-4.75%, and removed the wording "growing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%". Fed Chair Powell clearly stated that "interest rate hikes are not in the plan", with the basic expectation being a gradual reduction of interest rates to neutral levels, while refusing to provide excessive forward guidance. Market expectations for rate cuts remained unshaken: the probability of another 25-basis-point rate cut in December stayed at 70%, and the expectation of a cumulative 75-basis-point rate cut in 2025 remained solid. Powell ruled out the impact of election results on short-term policies, providing liquidity support for precious metals.
2. Escalating European political risks and a worsening global job market have intensified safe-haven demand. The three-party coalition led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed, and opposition parties urged the triggering of early elections. Political uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy has sparked market concerns. Nissan Motor announced plans to cut 9,000 jobs globally and reduce production capacity by 20%. Combined with the record number of layoffs announced by U.S. employers in October (tracked by Challenger, Gray & Christmas), global employment pressure has become prominent. Safe-haven funds have poured into precious metals at an accelerated pace: the U.S. dollar bond fund KF6799 rose by 0.2018%, and trading activity rebounded to 23,200 transactions.
3. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.78% to 104.34, recording its largest single-day drop in recent times. U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board: the 10-year Treasury yield fell 9.8 basis points to 4.334%, and the 2-year Treasury yield dropped 6.4 basis points to 4.21%. Expectations of coordinated monetary easing by global central banks have heated up. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and GlobalFoundries have completed negotiations on funding under the U.S. CHIPS Act, with industrial policies and liquidity easing forming a mutually reinforcing effect.

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: The price has broken above 4,085.14 and is on the verge of moving above the moving average, confirming a bullish pattern.
• Hourly Chart Level: It has broken above the recent pivot high, with strong trend momentum.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider buying on dips around 4,060.00, set a stop-loss at 4,050.00, and a take-profit at 4,150.00.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: It has strongly broken above 49.991 and is trading above the moving average, extending the bullish trend.
• Hourly Chart Level: It has broken out of the oscillating pivot, with sufficient trading volume.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider buying on dips around 49.500, set a stop-loss at 49.100, and a take-profit at 50.400.

Risk Warning

The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.