1. Macro Outlook: Surging Hike Odds and Energy Inflation Pressure Precious Metals

As the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting enters its final deliberation phase, interest rate futures are pricing the probability of a 25 bps rate hike above 90%. The 10-year US Treasury yield breached the psychological 5% barrier intraday—reaching its highest level since 2023—substantially raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and driving gold and silver to multi-week lows. Global investors are focused on the FOMC rate statement and dot plot projections for forward guidance.

On the geopolitical front, escalating Middle East hostilites have spurred a sharp rebound in crude benchmarks. Renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi energy facilities, the continued closure of a vital Saudi oil pipeline, and the postponement of maritime safety talks have left traffic along primary energy corridors below 30% of normal capacity. The resulting energy inflation fears reinforce tighter policy expectations, eclipsing bullion's traditional safe-haven demand.

Nonetheless, steady diversification of official reserves and secular de-dollarization provide an enduring floor for precious metals. The People's Bank of China marked its 22nd consecutive month of gold reserve expansion, joined by ongoing purchases from Poland and South Korea. Multiple market desks note that current pricing has largely absorbed the upcoming hike; absent aggressively hawkish forward guidance, precious metals could see a relief rebound once the decision is finalized.

2. Gold Technicals: Broader Bullish Trend Intact, Short-Term Capped Below 80-MA



Daily Framework: Spot gold opened at $4,297.28/oz during the Asian session and moved within a narrow range, offering limited unilateral trend setups. Downside attention centers on the $4,260 support zone. Moving averages retain a golden cross configuration, preserving the broader bullish structure. Medium-term longs positioned near $4,472.94 were stopped out, and new trend-following entries await clearer structural confirmation.

15-Minute Chart: Shorter-term moving averages remain aligned upward, but spot prices continue to trade beneath the 80-period moving average near $4,266.72. Intraday execution warrants patience until price action reclaims key moving averages in confluence with momentum indicators.

3. Silver Technicals: Daily MA Golden Cross Holds as Intraday Awaits Momentum Resonance



Daily Framework: Spot silver opened at $63.248/oz, oscillating within a tight band near underlying support as market participants await directional cues. The daily chart maintains an MA golden cross, but price has drifted beneath the 80-period moving average. Follow-through buying and a sustained break above the 20-day moving average will be required to re-establish upside momentum.

15-Minute Chart: While moving averages remain positively oriented, spot prices trade below the 80-period moving average around $62.813. Given the absence of a distinct directional catalyst, traders should monitor for an alignment between price breakout and moving average convergence before initiating exposure.

4. Risk Warning

Financial markets carry inherent volatility and capital risks. The technical levels and macro observations contained herein are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Market participants must assess trade setups independently based on individual risk tolerance and maintain disciplined position sizing.