Market Fundamental Analysis

The Federal Reserve's September policy meeting has entered its critical deliberation phase, with market rate hike expectations rising to nearly 90%. The 10-year US Treasury yield breached 5% intraday to set a new high since 2023, significantly elevating the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals and pushing gold and silver to more than one-month lows. On September 15, the market is closely focused on the Fed's interest rate decision and updated dot plot, with interest rate futures pricing in over a 90% probability of a 25 bps rate hike, while investors pay close attention to forward policy guidance.

The multi-front escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East drove a sharp rally in global crude oil prices. Concerns over energy-driven inflation further reinforce higher-for-longer rate logic, overshadowing traditional geopolitical safe-haven support and weighing on precious metals. Houthi forces attacked a Saudi air base and energy infrastructure, Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline remains shut down, and the maritime consultation meeting on the Strait of Hormuz scheduled for today was postponed again. Daily transit volume through three major global energy transit routes has fallen below 30% of normal levels.

The long-term supportive logic of sustained central bank gold purchases remains intact, paired with institutional views that rate hike headwinds may be largely priced in, limiting room for severe downside in gold and silver. The People's Bank of China has increased gold reserves for 22 consecutive months with August additions reaching a periodic high, while central banks in Poland, South Korea, and elsewhere continue bullion accumulation, reflecting persistent demand for reserve diversification and de-dollarization. Multiple institutions note that current markets have fully priced in this rate hike; absent continued hawkish signals, precious metals could see a relief recovery with medium-to-long-term upside fundamentals unbroken and ample buying support beneath current prices.



Gold Technical Analysis

Daily Framework: Spot gold opened at $4,297.28/oz during the Asian session and moved in a narrow range without clear intraday trend opportunities; the $4,260 level below offers notable support worth close attention. On the daily chart, moving averages remain in a golden cross with the broader trend pointed upward. The medium-term long position entered at $4,472.94 was stopped out, and new medium-term opportunities await further confirmation.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages show a bullish alignment, but the price trades below the 80-period moving average, currently hovering near $4,266.72/oz. Wait for market direction to align with the moving average structure before considering entry opportunities.



Silver Technical Analysis

Daily Framework: Spot silver opened at $63.248/oz today and traded in a tight band near underlying support; the market requires more time to determine direction. The daily moving averages maintain a golden cross with trend biased upward, but price has drifted below the 80-period moving average. Wait for price to break back above the 20-period moving average before evaluating medium-term entries.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages currently reflect a bullish alignment, but price remains below the 80-period moving average, trading near $62.813/oz. Wait for price action and moving average direction to resonate before executing trade setups.

Risk Warning

Trading financial markets involves unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the potential loss of principal. This analysis is provided for informational reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors must make independent assessments and decisions in accordance with their own risk tolerance.