I. Fundamental Analysis: Treasury Yields Continue to Weigh on Gold



Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show no obvious signs of easing.

President Trump confirmed that the US recalled B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford back domestically due to potential threats linked to Iran, though specifics remain undisclosed.

Concurrently, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the US satisfies Iran's seven conditions.

Tehran continues communication with Washington via Qatari mediators, but clear discrepancies remain over the execution sequence.

Developments also emerged in the Red Sea theater.

Yemeni government forces reported recapturing the strategic port of Mokha and securing key positions near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, advancing toward Houthi-held areas.

Regarding the US economy, the September ISM Services index dipped from 55.4 to 54.9, signaling a mild moderation in expansion speed.

However, the Prices Paid index surged to 74.0, marking its highest reading since July 2022 and highlighting stubborn energy and supply chain cost pressures.

Gold's central macro dilemma persists: cooling labor data knocked October rate hike odds down to ~20%, yet inflation pressures and long-term borrowing costs remain high.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to ~5.33% on Monday while the 30-year yield touched ~5.69%, both hovering near multi-year peaks and elevating the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Spot gold ultimately consolidated near $4,140, demonstrating that while softer rate expectations offer a floor, high yields and dollar strength cap meaningful rebounds.

II. Periodic Technical Analysis



1-Hour Timeframe (Intraday Short-Term: Neutral-Bearish):

Gold currently trades around 4138.56, with an intraday high of 4152.24 and a low of 4133.15.

Prices sit slightly below MA1 (4140.87) and MA20 (4139.20), while holding below MA30 (4146.25).

Following an earlier bounce from near 4125 above 4160, prices failed to extend toward the 4188—4198 resistance zone and retreated below 4150, indicating poor continuation.

Indicators reflect a neutral stance: RSI(14) prints 47.01 near the 50 midline; MACD reads -5.21 in negative territory; ADX registers 20.42, showing an absence of strong trending momentum.



H1 Structural Analysis:

The previously monitored 4150—4164 major demand zone has been breached downward.

This 4150—4164 zone has flipped from demand support into a necessary resistance zone that bulls must reclaim.

Stabilizing above 4164 is required before opening room toward the 4188—4198 resistance area and the 4215—4225 core supply band.

The primary downside focus rests on the 4125—4135 key support and liquidity pool.

Buying interest has repeatedly surfaced here, aligned closely with the ascending trendline.

Further below lies structural support at 4110—4111. A sustained close beneath 4110 would invalidate the low-level repair structure.

III. Trading Execution Plan

The 1-hour timeframe lacks directional clarity, with prices trapped between the 4125 and 4164 key zones.

Macro crosscurrents persist: subdued rate hike odds support prices, but benchmark yields above 5.3% cap upside moves.

Directly establishing directional exposure near 4140 is not advised today.

Strategy Direction: Buy on confirmed support
Trading Signal: Buy (Conditional Trigger)
Confidence Index: 55 / 100
Core Observation Range: 4110—4198
Key Buying Observation Zone: 4125—4135
Structural Invalidation: Below 4110
First Resistance: 4150—4164
Second Resistance: 4188—4198

[Execution Details]

Trading near 4138 is proximate to 4125—4135 support, making further short-chasing unfavorable.

If prices retest 4125—4135 and form long lower wicks, quick false breakdowns, or higher lows, long setups can be reassessed.

Target initial gains toward 4150—4164.

Reclaiming 4164 solidly is mandatory to validate a true rebound resumption.

Above 4164, target 4188—4198; breaking 4198 allows an extension toward 4215—4225.

Conversely, if 4125 breaks convincingly, avoid bottom-fishing and look to 4110—4111.

Sustained closes below 4110 invalidate the long plan, prompting a reassessment under a bearish regime.

IV. Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss.

This analysis is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors must make independent decisions based on their risk tolerance.