I. Fundamental Analysis

Houthi forces attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia, with Saudi authorities reporting three foreign casualties and 36 injuries.

Concurrently, US Vice President JD Vance reiterated that Iran must substantively curtail its uranium enrichment capabilities to satisfy conditions for ending hostilities, highlighting that core obstacles to a truce remain unaddressed.

Maritime hazards in the Strait of Hormuz show no signs of easing.

During the week of September 28 to October 5, at least 12 incidents involving attacks, attempted strikes, or harassment against oil tankers, LNG, and LPG carriers were recorded, marking the highest single-week tally since the onset of the US-Iran conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed to Iranian President Pezeshkian that Moscow is willing to assist in mediation, but this remains diplomatic dialogue without formal ceasefire frameworks.

The primary headwind capping bullion continues to emanate from the rates market.

Minutes from the September FOMC meeting revealed that a majority of officials still view an additional rate hike this year as appropriate, with select members arguing current levels are not yet sufficiently restrictive.

Coupled with persistent dollar strength and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 20-year highs, spot gold slumped to approximately $4,066.49 on Wednesday, touching its lowest point since August 5.

Although market consensus leans toward an October pause, pricing for a December rate hike remains stubbornly high at roughly 85%.

II. Periodic Technical Analysis



1-Hour Timeframe (Intraday Short-Term: Oversold Rebound and Technical Repair):

Gold currently trades around 4124.64, logging an intraday high of 4135.14 against a low of 4103.32.

Price action has successfully reclaimed MA1 (4113.48), MA20 (4110.27), and MA30 (4113.33).

From the 1-hour perspective, bullion experienced an extended decline from above 4170 down toward 4066 before stabilizing back above 4100.

The three short-to-medium moving averages are currently clustered tightly near 4110—4113, with price trading overhead, signaling emerging low-level demand absorption.

However, this technical recovery should not yet be interpreted as a confirmed trend reversal.



H1 Structural Framework:

Immediate focus rests on the 4112—4128 Demand / Reaction Zone.

Bullion is currently rotating within this band, marking the primary battleground between buyers and sellers.

Sustaining footing above 4128 and clearing the descending trendline at 4135—4150 are necessary prerequisites for extending this rebound.

Further overhead lies the critical 4168—4184 Major Resistance Zone.

A decisive break above 4184 would meaningfully shift the bearish 1-hour market structure, opening the path to retest the 4210—4225 Major Supply Zone.

III. Trading Execution Plan

Chasing long positions near 4120 or selling into prior swing lows is not recommended today.

The macro trend remains fragile, and while prices have staged a noticeable bounce from recent lows, entering without confirmation invites choppy whipsaws.

Strategy Direction: Buy after support confirmation
Trading Signal: Buy (Conditional Trigger)
Confidence Index: 55 / 100
Core Observation Range: 4065—4184
Current Battleground: 4112—4128
Key Buying Zone: 4065—4082
First Resistance: 4135—4150
Core Resistance: 4168—4184
Overhead Supply Zone: 4210—4225
Structural Invalidation: Below 4060

[Execution Details]

With prices holding above the moving average cluster at 4110, chasing short positions near 4120 carries poor risk-reward.

If gold solidifies support above 4128 and breaches the descending trendline at 4135—4150, the short-term structure will improve, targeting 4168—4184.

However, entries with favorable risk-reward are situated closer to confirmed structural supports rather than chasing current market prices.

IV. Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal.

This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their risk tolerance.