I. Market Overview: Rebound Must Pass Critical Resistance Test



Market Review:
Earlier attempts by gold to challenge overhead moving averages failed, inviting aggressive selling pressure.

Bullion experienced intense liquidation yesterday, breaking beneath the 4123.00 mark and continuing lower.

Prices finally attracted buying interest upon testing the lower boundary of the support zone near 4076.00.

Current Market State:
Following the bottom touch, gold launched a corrective technical bounce.

However, this move is currently viewed merely as a technical reaction to oversold conditions.

To unlock further upside potential, buyers must decisively reclaim and hold above the critical 4123.00 bull-bear pivot.

Path Projections:
1. Bullish Breakout:
If buyers successfully push price above 4123.00 and establish acceptance, a reversal structure will begin to take shape.

The initial upside target sits at 4195.00, with a clean breakout opening the path toward 4229.00 and 4261.00.

2. Rejection at Resistance:
If price action faces confirmed exhaustion near 4123.00, sellers will retain structural control, risking another drop toward 4076.00.

A breach below this level would shift downside focus toward the secondary support band at 4024.00—3975.00.



II. Key Price Levels

Overhead Resistance Zones:
4123.00 (Current Bull-Bear Pivot), 4195.00, 4229.00, 4261.00, 4318.00

Downside Support Zones:
4076.00 (Initial Support Band Floor), 4024.00—3975.00 (Secondary Support Band)

III. Trading Plan

1. Sell on Rejection (Trend-Following Strategy):
Current price trades at 4123.14, right up against core resistance.

Closely monitor price behavior around the 4123.00—4125.00 zone.

If clear signs of exhaustion emerge on the 1-hour chart (such as long upper wicks or bearish engulfing patterns), enter short positions.

Place stops above 4130.00, targeting 4076.00 initially, with extended targets near 4024.00 upon a volume breakdown.

2. Buy on Confirmed Breakout (Reversal Strategy):
If buying momentum surges and the 1-hour candle body closes decisively above 4125.00, the bounce confirms a valid breakout.

Traders can then wait for a shallow pullback to 4123.00 to buy on confirmed stabilization.

Target 4195.00 first, extending toward 4229.00.

IV. Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including the potential loss of principal.

This analysis is for informational reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their risk tolerance.