Analyst: Ma Guobang

Morning Session Outlook:
The 1-hour chart displays a soft bias; tactically, the preference is to monitor selling opportunities once a technical rebound meets resistance.

Overhead focus rests on the $4,165–$4,176 zone, while downside monitoring centers on $4,153.47; only a sustained 1-hour breakdown below the low followed by failed retests warrants projecting extensions toward $4,135–$4,140.

I. Fundamental Analysis: Regional Strikes Persist as Fed Officials Reiterate Restrictive Stance

According to reports on October 12, Saudi civil aviation authorities confirmed that Riyadh's international airport was struck by projectiles on Sunday, resulting in 1 Pakistani resident killed and 11 injured around Terminals 3 and 4.

Houthi forces claimed responsibility for targeting both Riyadh's airport and the King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait.

On monetary policy, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized that policy should remain restrictive to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target.

She argued that implementing smaller adjustments earlier when conditions permit proves more effective than delaying and being forced into large shifts later, warning that persistent inflation risks cementing an inflationary mindset.

II. Periodic Technical Analysis: Suppressed Below Moving Averages, Awaiting Directional Breakout



1-Hour Price Action and Moving Average Resistance:
Spot gold currently trades at $4,159.07 per ounce, down $12.31 or 0.29% intraday.

The session opened at $4,172.87 against a prior close of $4,171.38, logging an intraday high of $4,175.90 and a low of $4,153.47.

Regarding moving averages, MA1 stands at $4,165.67, MA20 at $4,166.61, and MA30 at $4,170.90.

Prices remain capped beneath all three moving averages, with MA30 sloping downward, signaling that the corrective retreat following the earlier rebound has not yet concluded.

Candles consolidated sideways near the averages before turning lower again, with low-level range trading yet to carve out a decisive upward breakout structure.

Initial overhead attention centers on the $4,165–$4,176 resistance band: the lower boundary aligns with MA1 and MA20, while the upper threshold encompasses MA30, the daily open, and the session peak.

If price revisits this band and exhibits exhaustion, lower highs, and a re-break below the moving averages, short setups can be monitored; moving average levels evolve dynamically and must be verified prior to execution.



Downside Lows and Structural Shifts:
Initial downside monitoring rests on the $4,153.47 support floor.

Current quotes already hover near the daily low; chasing shorts directly invites whipsaw risks, and a single intra-bar piercing does not confirm a trend continuation.

Only a 1-hour candle closing decisively below this low with failed subsequent retests warrants observing the $4,135–$4,140 reference zone, where demand durability remains to be proven.

Conversely, if two consecutive 1-hour candles close above $4,175.90, price will have reclaimed both the moving average cluster and the daily high, invalidating this fade-the-rally setup and shifting focus to the $4,180–$4,188 resistance band.

III. Trading Execution Plan

Strategy Direction: Monitor selling opportunities upon confirmed rejection at resistance; avoid chasing shorts at current lows
Observation Zone: $4,165–$4,176 (re-confirm dynamic moving averages during live execution)
Trigger Conditions: Price enters the zone, prints rejection or exhaustion candles, falls back below the moving average cluster, and forms lower lows on lower timeframes before entering
Target Levels: Initial target at $4,153.47; upon an established 1-hour breakdown without reclaim, look toward $4,135–$4,140
Invalidation Condition: Two consecutive 1-hour candle closes above $4,175.90 cancel the short-on-rebound plan
Stop-Loss Reference: Anchored to confirmed local swing highs upon entry and defined risk parameters ($4,175.90 serves as structural invalidation, not a static stop)

[Execution Details]
If $4,153.47 is briefly pierced and swiftly reclaimed, pause bearish continuation assumptions and await fresh structural confirmation.

IV. Risk Warning

Geopolitical strikes, maritime developments, and Fed communications can provoke sudden price gaps, and technical levels carry the risk of being breached directly.

All plans must strictly adhere to trigger conditions, and stop execution remains subject to market slippage. This analysis is for reference only and does not guarantee returns; investors must make independent decisions based on their risk tolerance.