Analyst: Ma Guobang

Gold rebounded rapidly from near $4,100 to $4,141.94 per ounce, staging a clear short-term technical recovery.

Price has reclaimed all three 1-hour moving averages, approaching the intraday peak of $4,151.65.

Tactically, initial attention rests on whether a pullback toward $4,121 can find firm buying absorption, looking for long setups only upon stabilization, with overhead focus primarily on the $4,160 mark.

I. Fundamental Analysis: Hot Inflation Keeps Rate Hike Bets Alive While Strait Incidents Underpin Bids

The US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% year-over-year, accelerating from August's 3.4%, and gained 0.6% month-over-month.

Core CPI climbed from 2.4% to 2.6% annualized, advancing 0.3% monthly against consensus expectations of 0.2%.

Retail gasoline prices surged 9.1% on the month, contributing over half of the headline CPI increase.

The hotter-than-expected inflation print amplified expectations for extended restrictive policy, sparking an immediate drop of nearly 2% in bullion upon release.

However, dip-buying interest quickly absorbed the plunge, though forward policy paths will continue dictating the durability of the bounce.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that additional rate increases may still be warranted, but emphasized that policymakers are in no rush to act at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting and can afford to assess incoming data.

She noted that inflation risks remain elevated while cautioning that risks do not equate to reality; uncertainty surrounding the timing of policy moves will keep bullion sensitive to macro releases.

Geopolitically, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore confirmed on the evening of October 14 that two Singapore-registered container vessels were struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

The GFS Pride was hit on October 13 and subsequently sank after catching fire, with all 21 crew members evacuated safely.

The GFS Giselle sustained damage on October 14 but successfully sailed to safe waters under its own power with all 22 crew members unharmed.

II. Periodic Technical Analysis: Price Reclaims Moving Averages to Test 4,151 Resistance



1-Hour Price Action and Moving Average Structure:
Spot gold currently trades at $4,141.94 per ounce, up $36.80 or 0.90% from the previous close of $4,105.14.

The session opened at $4,102.58, recording an intraday high of $4,151.65 against a low of $4,099.95.

Prices are running above MA1 ($4,121.01), MA20 ($4,105.16), and MA30 ($4,117.21), with the recovery lifting candles back above the short-term moving average cluster.

The bounce following earlier sharp selling is now testing session highs, with $4,151.65 presenting immediate resistance.



Technical Indicators and Support/Resistance Zones:
RSI(14) prints at 58.05, recovering into neutral-to-bullish territory alongside the price bounce.

On a pullback, initial support rests at MA1 near $4,121, followed by MA30 at $4,117.21, both serving as key zones for assessing buying absorption.

If price holds firmly above $4,121 on a retest with hourly higher lows forming, a retest of $4,151.65 remains viable.

Conversely, if an hourly candle closes below $4,117.21 without an immediate reclaim, technical repair momentum will deteriorate, bringing $4,105.16 down to $4,099.95 back into focus.

III. Trading Execution Plan

Strategy Direction: Look for long setups upon confirmed pullback stabilization; avoid chasing longs near 4,150
Focus Zones: Around $4,121; downside levels at $4,117.21 to $4,105.16, with the session low at $4,099.95
Trigger Conditions: Pullback halts near 4,121, 1-hour candle closes firmly above 4,121, and higher lows form before entering
Target Levels: Initial target at $4,151.65; reassess higher extension targets upon a breakout and successful retest
Invalidation Condition: A 1-hour close below $4,117.21 that fails to be reclaimed cancels the dip-buying plan; watch $4,099.95 if $4,105.16 gives way
Stop-Loss Reference: Positioned below local swing lows once the confirmation structure completes, tailored to the entry setup

IV. Risk Warning

Ongoing inflation digestion, central bank communications, and Middle East maritime shipping developments can spark rapid price swings.

This plan is conditioned on price confirmation and risk management parameters without guaranteeing returns; investors must make independent decisions based on their risk tolerance.

(Compiled and Edited by Lucky Gold Global Limited)