Analyst: Liu Cuisi

I. Fundamental Market Analysis

1. US September CPI Prints Exceed Consensus Across All Metrics:
US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month, while core CPI gained 2.6% annualized, with all measures surpassing broader market forecasts and underscoring persistent inflation stickiness.

Following the release, markets swiftly recalibrated policy expectations, lifting the implied probability of at least one additional Fed rate hike this year to nearly 90%.

Consequently, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.2% alongside renewed US dollar strength, substantially increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.

2. Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Concerted Hawkish Commentary:
New York Fed President John Williams and Boston Fed President Susan Collins publicly reiterated that progress toward returning inflation to target remains incomplete, expressing support for an additional rate hike this year to anchor disinflation.

Interest rate futures pricing currently reflects an approximate 88% probability of at least one further policy rate increase before year-end.

3. Middle East Tensions Sustain Elevated Energy Prices, Creating Crosscurrents:
Throughput constraints across select Saudi pipeline routes combined with ongoing navigation uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz have kept crude prices elevated in an upper range.

Sustained high energy costs threaten to delay broader disinflation, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's rationale for prolonging restrictive policy.

The higher-for-longer policy logic driven by energy inflation continues to actively clash with geopolitical safe-haven bids in precious metals markets.

II. Gold Technical Analysis



Daily Timeframe:
Spot gold opened at $4,102.58 per ounce during Asian trade, executing an upward corrective rebound throughout the session.

Price reached an intraday high of $4,162.24 against a low of $4,099.95, currently trading near $4,145.73 per ounce, up 0.99% on the day to largely recover losses triggered by the CPI report.

Daily moving averages remain locked in a death-cross configuration with broader momentum tilted downward, favoring patience to await confirmation before seeking medium-term short setups.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute Timeframe):
The 15-minute moving averages display a bullish yet entangled alignment, with price hovering above the 20-period MA at $4,140.15.

If price stabilizes on a retest near $4,140, light short-term long positions can be considered, referencing the daily low of $4,099.95 for stops and targeting near $4,162.

A confirmed break below $4,135 would advise closing short-term longs and stepping to the sidelines.

III. Silver Technical Analysis



Daily Timeframe:
Spot silver opened at $55.618 per ounce today.

Following sharp drops after the CPI release, silver traded in a tight sideways range without establishing distinct directional momentum.

With daily moving averages remaining in a death cross, traders should wait for price to retest the 20-period moving average before looking for medium-term positioning.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute Timeframe):
The 15-minute moving averages remain configured in a bearish alignment.

Should price break decisively beneath the 20-period MA, short-term selling opportunities can be evaluated, using the session high as a risk boundary.

Given current volatility compression, positions should remain light until directional continuation clarifies.

IV. Risk Warning

Financial markets carry unpredictable risks, including the potential loss of principal.

This analysis is provided for market reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions aligned with their risk tolerance.

(Compiled and Edited by Lucky Gold Global Limited)