Spot gold pulled back to $4,155.45 in morning trade, with short-term recovery momentum noticeably slowing.

Tactically, initial attention rests on price reaction across the $4,158.75–$4,160.69 band, monitoring for selling opportunities once a 1-hour candle exhibits upside exhaustion and closes weaker.

I. Fundamental Analysis: PPI Surges at Fastest Pace in Over 4 Years as Strike Hits Yemen Presidential Palace

According to a Reuters report, the US September Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 1.3% month-over-month—its largest advance since March 2022—and rose 6.3% on an annualized basis.

Retail sales released concurrently rose 0.8% MoM, though core retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services) edged up just 0.1%.

The elevated wholesale inflation reading reinforces macroeconomic pressure to maintain restrictive policy rates, while decelerating core consumer spending tempers aggressive tightening bets.

In the Middle East, according to a Reuters report, the Yemeni government confirmed that Houthi forces launched missile and drone attacks against the Maasheeq Presidential Palace in Aden on October 15, killing 5 and injuring 16, while the Prime Minister and cabinet members were unharmed.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury concurrently announced a fresh round of Iran-related financial sanctions, targeting banks and financial networks alleged to facilitate foreign exchange procurement and sanctions evasion; prolonged regional hostilities and financial enforcement continue to underpin safe-haven bids for bullion.

On the energy front, the International Energy Agency agreed on October 15 to accelerate existing emergency stockpile drawdowns, including releasing over 20 million barrels of diesel into the market.

Expanded physical supplies should help ease localized fuel cost pressures, though the actual pace of market delivery will dictate broader inflation expectations.

II. 1-Hour Technical Analysis: Rebound Momentum Moderates, Testing MA30 Support



London gold traded at $4,155.45 per ounce in morning trade, down $15.60 or 0.37% from the previous close.

The session opened at $4,169.39, recording an intraday high of $4,172.81 against a low of $4,151.72.

On the 1-hour timeframe, price action has retreated following an earlier rally, slipping beneath MA1 ($4,160.69) and MA20 ($4,158.75), while holding marginally above MA30 ($4,154.05).

Because MA30 continues to slope upward, the $4,154.05–$4,151.72 zone forms an essential near-term support floor to monitor.



Technical Indicator Panel)

Regarding momentum indicators, RSI(14) prints at 53.07, situated above the 50 neutral midpoint but remaining comfortably beneath the 70 overbought threshold.

The indicator has tracked prices lower from prior highs, signaling a moderation in upward momentum.

Overhead, initial resistance lies at $4,158.75—$4,160.69; a rejection within this zone could prompt a retest of $4,154.05 and $4,151.72.

Conversely, if a 1-hour candle reclaims $4,160.69 and holds on a subsequent pullback, upside focus shifts toward $4,169.39—$4,172.81.

III. Intraday Trading Execution Plan

Strategy Direction: Monitor selling opportunities upon confirmed resistance rejection
Focus Zone: $4,158.75—$4,160.69
Trigger Conditions: Price rebounds into the zone, prints a 1-hour rejection/exhaustion candle, and closes below $4,158.75 before entering
Target Levels: Initial target at $4,154.05, followed by $4,151.72
Invalidation Condition: A 1-hour close above $4,160.69 that holds on a retest cancels the fade-the-rebound plan
Stop-Loss Reference: Placed above the local swing high of the confirmed rejection structure, with the exact level defined upon setup completion

[Execution Details]
Given the proximity of downside targets to current market prices, traders must rigorously evaluate the risk-reward ratio against stop distances prior to execution and discard setups lacking adequate reward potential.

IV. Risk Warning

Sudden Middle East geopolitical headlines, currency market shifts, and adjustments to Fed rate expectations may amplify gold volatility, and execution remains subject to market slippage.

This article is provided for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading precious metals involves risk of principal loss.

(Compiled and Edited by Lucky Gold Global Limited)