Analyst: Lu Mingyu
Fundamentals: Rising inflation, while strategic releases may ease energy pressure
Gold stood at $4,187.14, up $16.09 or 0.39% on the day, close to the daily high of $4,187.17. Tonight, the preferred approach is to wait for a pullback to 4179.36 and a renewed hold before considering a long opportunity.
According to a Reuters report dated October 15, US September PPI rose 1.3% month on month, its largest increase since March 2022, and rose 6.3% year on year. Higher energy prices are spreading to other goods and services, and inflation pressure may keep rates higher for longer, limiting gold’s rebound.
In a separate Reuters report, the IEA agreed to accelerate its emergency oil-stock release commitments, including the prompt release of more than 20 million barrels of energy. If the release is implemented and energy costs fall, inflation and rate pressure could ease. The US will release industrial production and capacity-utilisation data at 21:15 Beijing time tonight. The focus will be whether the dollar and gold extend their direction after the data.
Technical picture: One-hour structure remains firm, with the daily high awaiting a break
On the one-hour chart, price is above MA1 at 4179.36, MA20 at 4170.30 and MA30 at 4163.39. All three moving averages are rising, leaving short-term buyers in control. RSI(14) is 64.60, within the 50–70 range, indicating strong bullish momentum.
The first upside level is the daily high at 4187.17. On a pullback, watch support near MA1, followed by 4170.30 and 4163.39. A one-hour close below 4170.30 would raise the risk of a deeper retracement; the pullback-long plan remains suspended until price regains that level.
Evening execution plan
Direction: Watch for a long opportunity after pullback confirmation.
Area of interest: Around 4179.36.
Trigger: After the pullback finds support, wait for a one-hour close back above 4179.36 before considering an entry.
Target: Retest 4187.17, the daily high.
Invalidation: Cancel the main plan if the one-hour candle closes below 4170.30.
Stop-loss: Once the pullback pattern forms, place it below the pattern low; wait while the pattern is undefined.
Alternative scenario: If 4170.30 fails, first watch support around 4163.39.
Risk warning: Economic data and unexpected news may amplify volatility, and the execution price of a stop-loss may differ from the intended level. This commentary is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice.
(Lucky Gold Global Limited Editorial)