Analyst: Ma Guobang

Gold’s one-hour structure is clearly bearish. My main plan today is to wait for a rebound to meet resistance before considering a short in line with the trend. Spot gold stood at 4122.37, down 18.38 or 0.44% from the previous close, near the intraday low of 4121.76. The first moving-average resistance zone is 4132.62–4137.92. How price behaves there during a rebound is central to today’s assessment.

The Middle East is today’s main news focus. Reuters reported that organisers of Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative announced on October 19 that the conference, originally scheduled for October 26–29, would be postponed until 2027, as security risks affected local business activity. Al Jazeera reported that the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers discussed ways to end the conflict in Tehran on October 19. I will closely monitor how security conditions and diplomatic developments affect intraday gold volatility.





One-hour highs and lows continue to decline, while all three moving averages slope downward, leaving bears in control.
MA1 is 4132.62, MA20 is 4137.92 and MA30 is 4152.59. Price is trading below all three moving averages.
The 4132.62–4137.92 zone forms the first moving-average resistance, while 4152.59 is the next level a further rebound would face.





RSI(14) is 24.49, below the commonly used oversold threshold of 30, suggesting scope for a short-term recovery. Given the current downtrend, I favour watching for a rebound into moving-average resistance that subsequently fails. The first downside target is around 4121.76.

Direction: Bearish after a rebound meets resistance.

Area of interest: 4132.62–4137.92.

Trigger: Wait for price to rebound into the area of interest and form a rejection pattern, followed by a one-hour close back below 4132.62, before considering a trend-following opportunity.

Target: Around 4121.76.

Invalidation: If a one-hour candle closes above 4137.92 and a subsequent retest holds, cancel the rebound-short plan and turn attention to moving-average resistance around 4152.59.

Stop-loss: Base it on the high of the rebound rejection pattern, with the precise level determined after the pattern forms.

Wait for price to enter the area of interest and confirm rejection before acting.

Risk warning: Geopolitical news may increase gold volatility. This commentary is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice.

(Lucky Gold Global Limited Editorial)