Analyst: Lu Mingyu

Tonight, I favour waiting for a rebound to meet resistance before considering a bearish opportunity. Spot gold stood at $4,124.04, down $16.71 or 0.40%, with price below all three moving averages. I will first assess whether a rebound can regain the nearby moving-average area before deciding whether to follow the weakness.

The one-hour chart continues to form lower highs and lower lows, while MA20 and MA30 slope downward. MA1 at 4129.44 and MA20 at 4132.65 form the nearby rebound area to watch. Further overhead is MA30 at 4139.09. RSI(14) is 37.49, below 50, indicating weak momentum. The first downside reference is the intraday low at 4114.89.

Direction: Bearish after a rebound meets resistance.



Area of interest: 4129.44–4132.65.

Trigger: After price rebounds into the area of interest and retreats, wait for a one-hour candle to close below 4129.44. Consider a bearish opportunity if a subsequent retest fails to reclaim the area.

Targets: First watch 4124.04, followed by the intraday low at 4114.89.

Invalidation: Cancel this bearish plan if a one-hour candle closes back above 4139.09 and a subsequent pullback holds that level.

Stop-loss: Determine the precise level from the rebound high once the entry pattern has formed.

Unexpected geopolitical developments can amplify volatility. Control position size and set the stop-loss according to the confirmed pattern.

(Lucky Gold Global Limited Editorial)