Analyst: Ma Guobang

I. Fundamental Market Overview: Diplomatic Impasse Persists as Middle East Risks Resurface

1. Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider stated anonymously that Tehran firmly believes the US President is preparing to resume military strikes, emphasizing that Iran will not negotiate with Washington unless its specific demands are satisfied.

2. Concurrently, a senior US official informed American media outlets that Tehran is deliberately dragging out diplomatic negotiations in an attempt to undermine Donald Trump's political standing ahead of the November US midterm elections.

II. 1-Hour Structure and Positioning: Prices Hover Near Lows, Capped Beneath Moving Averages



As of 09:18, spot gold traded at $4,108.09 per ounce, down $16.73 or 0.41% from the previous close.

The session opened at $4,125.61, registering an intraday peak of $4,131.91 and an intraday trough of $4,106.31.

Across moving averages, current prices sit beneath MA1 ($4,116.83), MA20 ($4,120.45), and MA30 ($4,122.62), maintaining a bearish configuration with RSI(14) printing at 37.79 in weak territory.

With quotes pressing against intraday lows, tactically observe price reactions near $4,106.31 rather than chasing shorts impulsively at the bottom.

III. Current Trading Execution Plan

Strategy Direction: Near-term structure is weak; await a corrective pullback and confirmation before observing trend-following short setups
Focus Zone: Moving average band between $4,116.83 and $4,122.62
Trigger Conditions: Price rebounds into the moving average cluster, a 1-hour candle closes back beneath $4,116.83, and price fails to reclaim the level on retests
Target Levels: Initial observation at the session low of $4,106.31; if a 1-hour candle closes below it and retests fail, update plan based on the newly formed structure
Invalidation Condition: A 1-hour candle closes above $4,122.62 and holds support on a subsequent retest
Stop-Loss Reference: Anchored to the swing high of the confirmed rejection structure upon entry

[Alternative Scenario]
If a 1-hour candle reclaims $4,122.62 and stabilizes on a pullback, cancel bearish observation and shift focus toward the intraday high of $4,131.91.

IV. Risk Warning

Execute the plan only after price enters the observation zone and confirms a 1-hour technical pattern.

(Compiled and Edited by Lucky Gold Global Limited)