I. Market Overview

Fundamental Background:
Elevated crude prices alongside firm Fed tightening expectations continue to weigh on gold, while geopolitical uncertainty offers only short-lived support, preserving an overall bearish macro tone.

Price Action Characteristics:
On the 1-hour chart, spot gold currently trades at $4,123.37.

After testing a low of $4,106.31, price mounted a recovery and has reclaimed short-term moving averages (MA1: 4,117.27, MA20: 4,117.43, MA30: 4,121.71), with RSI printing at 49.07.

Near-term selling pressure has eased temporarily as the market enters a corrective stage testing overhead resistance.

II. Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Structure and Fibonacci Levels

Wave Structure (Elliott Wave):
• Wave A Decline: 4,217.00 down to 4,073.00
• Wave B Rebound: 4,073.00 up to 4,199.00
• Wave C Incubation: The ongoing downward leg originating from 4,199.00 carries Wave C traits, with the recent bounce representing a minor secondary correction within the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements (4,199.00—4,108.00 Swing):
• 23.6% Retracement: 4,130.00
• 38.2% Retracement: 4,143.00
• 50.0% Retracement: 4,154.00
• 61.8% Retracement: 4,164.00

III. Key Levels at a Glance

Resistance Zones: 4,130.00—4,140.00 (Primary), 4,154.00—4,164.00 (Strong Resistance)
Support Zones: 4,108.00—4,110.00 (Initial), 4,073.00—4,082.00 (Wave Target)
Structural Pivot: 4,199.00 (A sustained breakout invalidates the bearish framework)

IV. Trading Plan

Strategy 1: Trend-Following Short (Base Case)
• Direction: SELL
• Entry: 4,130.00—4,140.00 (Enter upon confirmed rejection within this zone)
• Stop-Loss: Above 4,143.00
• Target 1: 4,108.00—4,110.00
• Target 2: 4,073.00—4,082.00

Strategy 2: Deep Rebound Short (Contingency)
• Trigger Condition: If price breaks aggressively above 4,140.00, abandon Strategy 1 and await superior positioning
• Direction: SELL
• Entry: 4,154.00—4,164.00 (50.0%—61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone)
• Invalidation Condition: A candle body closing and sustaining firmly above 4,199.00

V. Risk Warning

Financial markets carry unpredictable risks, including the potential loss of principal.

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments aligned with their risk tolerance.