Hostilities Escalate as Key Inflation Test Nears: Tonight's PPI Could Spark Fresh Gold Move
1. Gold Reclaims the $4,410 Level
During the Asian session on September 10, spot gold sustained its recovery momentum from the prior day. As of approximately 10:00 Beijing time, gold traded at $4,417.92/oz, up $16.56 or 0.38% intraday, having opened at $4,410.54 with a high of $4,420.79 and a low of $4,389.78.
In the preceding session, gold briefly rose to $4,433.95 before settling near $4,401. Entering Thursday, prices dipped briefly below $4,390 before rebounding quickly above $4,410. On the 1-hour chart, the MA1, MA20, and MA30 are concentrated near $4,405, positioning the price temporarily above its short-term moving average cluster.
2. US-Iran Maritime Confrontation Intensifies
Geopolitical developments across the Middle East remain the focal point for global markets. Forces from the US and Iran engaged in their largest naval confrontation in six months near the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC announced strikes on multiple maritime targets, including American vessels, while the US military subsequently confirmed destroying several Iranian commercial energy carriers.
Tensions broadened into Jordan, where ballistic missiles were fired toward a US military facility. Concurrently, ongoing hostilities between Yemeni Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia further compounded regional instability.
As shipping transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz chokepoint continues to decline, supply disruption risks drove benchmark Brent crude above $100 per barrel, testing highs near $101.
3. Rising Energy Costs Reignite Inflation Concerns
Sustained upward momentum in crude oil has reignited scrutiny over whether US inflation can continue its descent toward policy targets.
Following an August non-farm payroll addition of 162,000—which significantly beat forecasts and underscored labor resilience—market pricing had already shifted toward further Fed tightening in September. Rising energy costs now add further upward pressure to medium-term price expectations.
Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched highs above 4.85% before pulling back slightly. A corresponding softening in the US dollar index provided near-term support for bullion's recovery above $4,400.
4. US Treasury Expands Long-Term Debt Buyback Program
The US Treasury Department expanded its long-term Treasury buyback operations, raising the single-operation cap up to $6 billion.
Earlier buyback expansions contributed to temporary yield relief in sovereign debt. Amid recent market volatility, the implementation details of Treasury operations remain under close observation by fixed-income and precious metals participants.
Shifting fiscal financing costs and broader sovereign debt dynamics continue to underpin structural investment demand for bullion.
5. Tonight's PPI Print in Direct Focus
Market focus shifts squarely to US August PPI data scheduled for release at 8:30 AM EDT today (20:30 Beijing time), followed by the August CPI report at the same time tomorrow.
These reports represent the final core inflation figures ahead of the September FOMC meeting. With the labor market demonstrating resilience, whether producer and consumer prices show meaningful deceleration will directly dictate interest rate expectations.
Market Outlook
As of 10:00 Beijing time, spot gold has recovered from its $4,389.78 low to trade around $4,417.92, re-establishing footing above the $4,400 mark.
Immediate overhead resistance is observed between $4,420 and $4,435, with further resistance at $4,450. On the downside, primary support rests at $4,400, followed by $4,390. Tonight's PPI release, alongside Middle East developments and energy swings, is positioned to drive short-term volatility.