I. News Events



1. US-Iran Talks Continue as Strait Corridor Reopening Hits Deadlock

According to government officials, US and Iranian officials held separate talks with mediators on Monday in an effort to break the current truce stalemate. An official familiar with the negotiations told US media that subsequent talks are expected to focus on a revised version of the seven-day proposal put forward by Iran during last week's UN General Assembly.

Iran stated that "they have already submitted a peace proposal." President Trump only indicated discussions with mediators without revealing further details. The diplomatic deadlock keeps key maritime transport routes blocked, supporting international energy prices at elevated levels.

2. Energy Surge Drives US Treasury Yields Higher as October Rate Hike Odds Top 70%



Driven by rising energy prices, US Treasuries faced liquidation, with yields climbing further today as the 10-year benchmark yield touched its highest level since 2007.



Expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve heated up, with CME data showing traders pricing in a 72.5% probability of another rate hike by late October. The US Dollar Index strengthened concurrently, touching near two-month highs.

II. 30-Minute Chart



As of 13:36 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,125.24 per ounce, up $9.58 or 0.23% intraday.

Gold prices staged a mild rebound after probing an early session low of $4,113.19. Currently, MA30 ($4,127.77), MA1 ($4,129.19), and MA20 ($4,132.31) form a dense overhead resistance cluster.

Prices are currently hugging the lower edge of this moving average band where morning rebound momentum encountered clear resistance, maintaining an overall low-range consolidation pattern.

III. 30-Minute Technical Indicators



On the 30-minute technical front, the overall assessment reads "Strong Sell" (2 bullish, 3 neutral, 6 bearish), with short-term conditions remaining weak across indicators:

Core Relative Indicators:
Relative Strength Index RSI(14): 41.84, in weak sell territory; Stochastic STOCH(9,6): 57.67, signaling a buy; Commodity Channel Index CCI(14): -47.66, in neutral territory.

Trend Momentum Indicators:
Mid-term momentum MACD(12,26): -3.69, maintaining a sell rating; Trend strength ADX(14): 16.12, neutral with slowing downside slope; Rate of Change ROC: 0.042, flashing a buy signal; Bull/Bear Power(13): -5.84, sellers retain a slight advantage.

Oscillator and Sensitive Indicators:
StochRSI(14): 30.90, in sell state; Williams %R: -63.83, in weak sell territory; Average True Range ATR(14): 9.14, exhibiting lower volatility and compression characteristics (Less Volatility).

IV. Summary and Outlook

The Middle East negotiation deadlock keeps energy prices elevated, directly driving up US Treasury yields and cementing market pricing for an October Fed rate hike. High risk-free rates continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, forming the core macro background currently suppressing gold prices.

Looking ahead, gold's short-term technical rebound faces direct testing from overhead moving average clusters. Without heavy volume breaking through and stabilizing above this resistance band, the market will likely remain under pressure, carrying the risk of a secondary test of recent lows. Upcoming US PCE price indices and non-farm payroll reports later this week will serve as key catalysts; if inflation or employment data prints stronger than expected, downside pressure on gold could intensify further.