I. News Events: US Troops Officially Withdraw from Iraq, Iran Urges US Voters to Replace Congressional Allies



US troops in Iraq officially completed their withdrawal on Wednesday, ending a 23-year military presence. Concurrently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran released a 26-page open letter urging US voters to reject the incumbent administration's allies and overseas military intervention policies in the November congressional elections.

While the letter is unlikely to sway US voters, it highlights issues political analysts view as unfavorable to Trump and the Republicans ahead of the November 3 congressional elections, where opposition Democrats could regain control of one or both legislative chambers, potentially obstructing Trump's political agenda.

Qatar Continues Peace Mediation, US-Iran Differences Persist



Qatar continues shuttle diplomacy between the US and Iran in an attempt to find consensus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz corridor. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari told reporters: "We are exchanging messages between both sides and striving to build a common ground to reach an agreement that spares us all the consequences of conflict."

Meanwhile, Trump reiterated his stance that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and that the war will end soon. "I don't know if they're going to give up, but they'll give up," Trump told reporters on Tuesday. "They're doing very badly," he added.

II. 30-Minute Chart: Gold Edges Lower in Consolidation with Tightly Tucked Moving Averages



As of approximately 13:51 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,174.58 per ounce, edging down $7.38 or 0.18% intraday.

After probing a local low of $4,167.39, gold stabilized and rebounded, entering an extremely narrow horizontal consolidation pattern. Current moving averages MA1 ($4,175.79), MA20 ($4,175.51), and MA30 ($4,177.27) are tightly clustered and flattening.

Prices intertwine closely near this dense moving average band, as bulls and bears reach a temporary technical balance around the $4,175 mark while awaiting new directional guidance.

III. 30-Minute Technical Indicators: Overall Assessment Neutral, Bulls and Bears Balanced



On the 30-minute technical front, the overall assessment reads 'Neutral' (3 bullish, 4 neutral, 3 bearish), with forces balanced and lacking unilateral direction:

Core Relative Indicators:
Relative Strength Index RSI(14): 53.35, in neutral territory; Stochastic STOCH(9,6): 54.09, in neutral territory; Commodity Channel Index CCI(14): -38.52, maintaining neutral status.

Trend Momentum Indicators:
Mid-term momentum MACD(12,26): 4.53, suggesting buy; Trend strength ADX(14): 22.40, suggesting buy, but weak trend strength; Rate of Change ROC: -0.089, suggesting sell; Bull/Bear Power(13): 2.46, weakly favoring buy.

Oscillator and Sensitive Indicators:
StochRSI(14): 16.05, entering oversold territory; Williams %R: -56.97, suggesting sell; Average True Range ATR(14): 8.64, exhibiting high volatility features (High Volatility).

IV. Summary and Outlook

Event Summary: The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and ongoing Qatari mediation provide a complex diplomatic backdrop for the Middle East situation. However, neither the US nor Iran has made substantive concessions on core issues, and restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. The overarching macro theme remains solid. Under the weight of high interest rates, non-yielding gold struggles to secure macro catalysts for a unilateral breakout.

Market Outlook: Combined with 30-minute price action and neutral technical indicators, gold is currently choosing its direction around the $4,175 moving average band. Short-term selling pressure has been partially absorbed within the StochRSI oversold zone, and the market has entered a consolidation and rest period. Close attention should be paid to the support efficacy of the lower low at $4,167; an effective breach would target deeper defenses. Overhead, initial resistance is seen near the intraday high of $4,187, and bulls must break out with volume above this level to shatter the current consolidation deadlock.