I. 1-Hour Gold Reclaims Moving Averages, Watching $4,152 Near-Term Resistance



In early Asian trade on Tuesday, spot gold fluctuated around $4,140 per ounce.

Bullion settled virtually flat at $4,140.28 during Monday's New York session, while December US gold futures dipped 0.1% to settle at $4,156.80.

A stronger greenback and elevated Treasury yields offset the support stemming from fading October Fed rate hike expectations.

On the 1-hour timeframe, London gold traded at $4,150.93, advancing $11.22 or 0.27% intraday.

The session opened at $4,142.32 against a previous close of $4,139.71, recording an intraday high of $4,152.24 and a low of $4,133.15.

Prices sit above MA1 ($4,143.34) and MA20 ($4,140.43), while reclaiming MA30 ($4,146.87), though follow-through momentum requires further confirmation.

II. October Rate Hike Probability Drops from ~70% to 24%, December Odds Hold at 84%



US September payroll growth slowed more than anticipated alongside downward revisions to the prior two months, prompting traders to scale back policy tightening bets for October.

CME FedWatch shows traders pricing an October rate hike probability of 23.8%, down sharply from roughly 70% last week, while December odds hold firm at 84%.

Following the Fed's first rate increase in three years last month, market participants await Wednesday's release of the September FOMC meeting minutes to assess forward guidance.

While cooling October expectations cushion downside risk, stubborn December odds keep the broader monetary backdrop restrictive.

III. 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields Reach Fresh 24-Year Peaks

US Treasury yields marched higher across the curve on Monday.

The 10-year yield climbed 3.4 basis points to 5.311%, testing an intraday high of 5.3493%, while the 30-year yield rose 3.2 basis points to 5.662%, touching 5.7029%—both marking 24-year peaks.

The 2-year to 10-year Treasury yield curve spread widened to 48.8 basis points after testing 49.70 basis points, its steepest slope since August 21.

An advancing Dollar Index continues to present headwinds for dollar-denominated bullion.

Metals Focus projects gold to hit record highs in 2027 with an annual average of $5,330/oz, but this long-term outlook does little to alleviate immediate yield pressures.

IV. Services Sector Cools While Input Prices Surge to Over 4-Year Highs



The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported slower service-sector activity in September, but its prices paid index surged to its highest level in more than four years.

Jim Barnes, Director of Fixed Income at Bryn Mawr Trust, noted that nothing in the data pushed Treasury yields downward.

Concurrently, fiscal concerns across Europe and Middle East-related energy supply worries continue to reverberate through global debt markets.

V. Markets Await FOMC Minutes and Upcoming Treasury Auctions

Over the near term, dollar strength, elevated yields, and lingering December hike risks remain the core dampers on gold recoveries.

Conversely, the rapid retreat in October tightening bets offers a technical floor.

Investors are now turning their attention to Wednesday's September FOMC minutes and subsequent Treasury auctions to gauge yield sustainability and determine whether gold can hold the $4,140 base.