I. News Events

1. Yemeni Government Forces Launch Full Counteroffensive as Red Sea Clashes Escalate



Yemeni government forces announced a comprehensive military campaign aimed at reclaiming areas held by Houthi fighters, with strategic focus on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea coastline. In response, Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Riyadh and Khurais, Saudi Arabia. With the United States and regional allies providing intelligence and defensive support, the geographic scope of Middle East hostilities has broadened.

2. Maritime Incidents Persist in Regional Straits



Maritime tracking data indicated that late September energy shipments from the Middle East surpassed pre-war levels across multiple sessions, showing a noticeable recovery in daily outbound volumes. However, vessel attacks across the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea corridor remain frequent. A maritime intelligence provider noted that commercial vessels transit under constant, unpredictable threat levels, designating select corridors as high-risk shipping zones.

3. Saudi Arabia Deeply Cuts Asian Selling Prices to Offset Shipping Costs



Saudi Arabia unexpectedly reduced its official selling prices for November crude exports to Asia to six-year lows, exceeding market forecasts. Analysts noted this pricing strategy compensates Asian buyers for record-breaking freight premiums caused by transit disruptions in the Red Sea and adjacent straits. Daily tanker charter rates along the Persian Gulf to Asia route have surged more than tenfold compared to the same period last year.

II. 30-Minute Chart



As of approximately 13:45 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,138.52/oz, down $4.62 or 0.11% intraday.

After descending toward an intraday low of $4,124.70, prices entered a weak, inelastic consolidation range. While MA1 ($4,135.35) provides modest short-term support underneath, MA20 ($4,143.88) and MA30 ($4,145.53) have formed a distinct bearish death-cross pattern above current levels. Candles remain capped below dense resistance above $4,143, tilting overall price action toward bearish defensive posturing.

III. 30-Minute Technical Indicators



On the 30-minute timeframe, the technical overview indicates a "Strong Sell" (0 bullish, 2 neutral, 9 bearish), with sellers firmly controlling short-term directional flow:

Core Relative Indicators:
Relative Strength Index RSI(14): 43.75, operating in weak selling territory; Stochastic STOCH(9,6): 30.81, retaining a sell alert; Commodity Channel Index CCI(14): -71.77, remaining under bearish dominance.

Trend Momentum Indicators:
Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD(12,26): -7.21, sustaining a sell signal beneath the zero line; Average Directional Index ADX(14): 24.05, signaling a transition from trending downside slope to lower-level consolidation; Rate of Change ROC: -0.214, alongside Bull/Bear Power(13): -9.56, both indicating dominant downside pressure.

Oscillator / Volatility Metrics:
StochRSI(14): 48.96, fluctuating within neutral boundaries; Williams %R: -63.27, leaning toward weak selling territory; Average True Range ATR(14): 9.56, indicating high intraday volatility (High Volatility).

IV. Summary

Although Saudi Arabia reduced official selling prices to preserve market share in Asia and overall regional exports improved, this dynamic underscores broader supply chain strains: elevated maritime logistics costs have largely offset price discounts on physical commodities. These shipping premiums risk passing through to consumer goods, sustaining inflationary stickiness. Persistent inflation concerns reinforce the higher-for-longer monetary environment, exerting systematic headwinds on bullion.

Technically, gold displayed weak bounce momentum after testing the $4,124.70 low and remains capped beneath MA20 and MA30 moving average bands. Indicators maintain decisive sell readings without entering extreme oversold zones, leaving scope for further downside exploration. Near-term focus rests on support around $4,124; a decisive break lower risks targeting deeper support near the $4,100 psychological threshold. Conversely, stabilizing price action requires buyers to break above the overhead moving average barrier at $4,145 on expanding volume.