I. News Events



1. US Establishes Firm Baseline for Peace Negotiations

US Vice President JD Vance stated in an interview that Iran must substantively scale back its uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy US conditions for ending the seven-month conflict.

He emphasized that Washington will not accept verbal assurances alone, noting that while negotiations regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz corridor continue, the US had previously rejected related proposals.

2. Divergence Over Decision-Making Apparatus Highlights Diplomatic Friction

Vance revealed that while the US is engaging with Iran's president and foreign minister, Washington harbors doubts regarding the actual decision-making hierarchy within Tehran.

In response, a spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry countered that the core impediment lies in contradictory positions held by the United States.

3. Conflict Expenditures Drive Energy Costs Higher, Impacting Midterms

The ongoing hostilities are costing up to $3 billion per month while fueling severe turbulence across international energy markets.

Elevated fuel expenses have substantially increased domestic consumer living costs, making economic and energy conditions the pivotal battleground for the November midterm elections.

II. 30-Minute Chart



As of approximately 13:34 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,132.58 per ounce, dropping sharply by $31.90 or 0.77% intraday.

After touching a morning high of $4,169.93, bullion encountered persistent and steady one-sided selling pressure.

MA1 ($4,137.44), MA20 ($4,141.90), and MA30 ($4,153.48) have fanned out into a clear bearish alignment.

Candles continue to trade beneath all short-term moving averages while refreshing session lows, carving out an unambiguous unilateral downtrend structure.

III. 30-Minute Technical Indicators



On the 30-minute timeframe, the technical overview indicates a "Strong Sell" (0 buy, 0 neutral, 8 sell), with sellers firmly dominating short-term market action:

Core Relative Indicators:
Relative Strength Index RSI(14): 30.09, operating within weak selling territory.

Stochastic STOCH(9,6): 19.47, entering the lower oversold zone.

Commodity Channel Index CCI(14): -118.69, anchored deep within bear-dominated boundaries.

Trend Momentum Indicators:
Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD(12,26): -5.31, consistently issuing sell readings below the zero line.

Average Directional Index ADX(14): 39.83, elevated with a sell signal, demonstrating steady directional continuity in the downtrend.

Rate of Change ROC: -0.728, alongside Bull/Bear Power(13): -23.05, both pointing to robust selling power.

Oscillator / Volatility Metrics:
Fast stochastic StochRSI(14): 0.00, touching absolute oversold limits.

Williams %R: -95.77, deep within acute oversold levels.

Average True Range ATR(14): 6.24, reflecting volatility compression (Less Volatility).

IV. Summary and Outlook

Event Summary:
Strict US demands for peace talks combined with diplomatic divergences have cooled market expectations for a near-term ceasefire and the resumption of regional maritime flows.

Prolonged hostilities keep baseline energy prices and inflation pressures elevated, reinforcing an environment where the Federal Reserve sustains higher interest rates.

Market Outlook:
While a zeroed-out StochRSI and oversold Williams %R imply spontaneous technical rebound needs, the restrictive macro environment will strictly cap upside advances.

Near term, traders should closely monitor support around the session low at $4,132; a volume-backed break lower would target deeper defensive zones.

Overhead, initial technical retracement resistance rests near the MA20 barrier around $4,142.