Market Fundamental Analysis

Market expectations for a September Fed rate hike have been fully priced in, allowing bearish pressure to clear early. Combined with rising safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions, gold and silver dipped before rebounding strongly during the Asian session, with gold reclaiming the $4,300/oz psychological mark. Ahead of the early-morning FOMC interest rate decision and updated dot plot guidance on September 16, interest rate futures continue to price in an over 90% probability of a 25 bps rate increase. The preceding downtrend largely digested tightening expectations; as bullion retested crucial support, bottom-fishing buying and short-covering converged to trigger a sharp recovery.

Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate across multiple fronts. Explosions were reported on Qeshm Island in southern Iran, US military facilities in the region sustained severe damage, and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow to recover. International crude prices fluctuated at elevated levels as concerns over sticky inflation interwove with safe-haven bids. Key Saudi oil pipelines remain offline, leaving regional escalation risks persistent.

The market is intently focused on the Fed's policy stance, specifically the dot plot rate trajectory and forward guidance from Chair Powell's press conference, seeking to gauge whether this decision represents a 'hawkish hike' or a 'dovish hike.' Investors broadly favored holding lighter positions during this policy window. If the Fed merely delivers the anticipated rate increase without lifting forward tightening projections, it will be viewed as preemptive fine-tuning, paving the way for a relief recovery in precious metals once headwinds are exhausted. Conversely, a sharp upward shift in the dot plot signaling prolonged hikes would apply renewed pressure. Pre-meeting positioning remained cautious, with intraday volatility narrowing as markets awaited explicit policy direction.



Gold Technical Analysis

Daily Framework: Spot gold opened at $4,295.11/oz during today's Asian session, regaining bullish momentum with an intraday high of $4,341.62 and a low of $4,275.54, currently trading near $4,324.99/oz. On the daily chart, moving averages remain in a golden cross with the broader trend favoring the upside; price currently trades between the 20-MA and 80-MA, awaiting a breakout above the 20-MA before adding medium-term long positions.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages display a bullish alignment. The morning breakout above the 20-MA offered an optimal entry point, with stop-loss anchored near the session low of 4275. Positions targeting a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio have already taken profit, while trailing stops following the moving average system can remain held until price drops below the 20-MA.



Silver Technical Analysis

Daily Framework: Spot silver opened at $63.658/oz today, tracking gold higher as bulls gained traction to reach a high of $64.884 against a low of $63.426, currently trading near $64.395/oz with a high probability of fresh intraday highs. The daily chart displays a golden cross pointing northward; price trades between short- and long-term moving averages, and medium-term setups can be evaluated once price breaks above the 20-MA again.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages currently show a bullish alignment. The morning breakout above the 20-MA around 63.84 served as a favorable entry level, with stop-loss referenced at the daily low of 63.426. Traders can exit at a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio or trail positions along the moving averages.

Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors must make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.