I. Fundamental Analysis: Strait of Hormuz Navigation Recovers, but Middle East Risks and Rate Hike Expectations Continue to Cap Gold

Gold continued to trade around the theme of "further Federal Reserve policy tightening + Middle East geopolitical risks" overnight. US Treasury yields remained elevated, and market expectations for additional Fed rate hikes within the year persist. New York Fed President Williams noted that with inflation risks remaining somewhat high, a rate hike before the end of the year is a "reasonable" assessment.

However, actual navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has shown significant improvement. A US official stated that approximately 60 commercial vessels passed through the strait on Wednesday, with about 40 coordinated and protected by the US military, and roughly 22 million barrels of crude oil transported out—marking the highest single-day oil passage volume since early July. Reuters noted that this data could not be independently verified yet.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia reported intercepting six ballistic missiles launched by the Houthi movement, which subsequently claimed attacks near Riyadh and Yanbu. This indicates that while energy transit has improved, regional military risks have not truly dissipated.

Additionally, the Iran issue remains a key topic of discussion between China and the US. China has called for the US and Iran to return to the negotiating table, but no clear arrangements have yet been established regarding military pressure, sanctions, or Hormuz navigation between the two sides.

II. Periodic Technical Analysis



30-Minute Timeframe (Intraday Short-Term: Bullish Rebound): Gold is currently trading around 4294.81, with an intraday high of 4295.77 and a low of 4264.33. Prices have reclaimed MA1 at 4280.50, MA20 at 4275.82, and MA30 at 4271.71. Chart-wise, after stabilizing near 4264, gold posted consecutive strong bullish candles pushing prices back above 4290, significantly strengthening the 30-minute rebound structure.



Technical indicators generally signal a Strong Buy, with 7 indicators flashing Buy and zero Sell signals. RSI(14) reads 63.74, entering the stronger momentum zone; MACD prints 2.63 and flips back to Buy, and ADX reaches 28.81, indicating the current rebound has established trend momentum. However, short-term cycles are clearly overheated. StochRSI has risen to 100, Williams %R reads -2.02, and CCI hits 333.27, with all three indicators entering clear overbought territory.



4-Hour Timeframe (Medium-Term Structure: Weak Recovery): The 4-hour price is currently around 4294. Prices have re-crossed above MA1 at 4271.30 and MA20 at 4277.87—a notable improvement compared to yesterday—though still below MA30 at 4308.15. Since the 4-hour chart experienced a persistent pullback from above 4350, reclaiming MA20 can be viewed as post-decline repair. However, without a decisive breakout above MA30, it cannot yet be defined as a renewed upward trend. RSI(14) currently prints 45.88; while still below the 50 midline, it has rebounded significantly from previous lows, indicating weakening selling momentum. Therefore, the 4-hour timeframe is best defined as a rebound-recovery within a choppy, weak bias.

III. Trading Execution Plan

The 30-minute chart is visibly strong, but multiple short-term indicators have entered overbought territory. Although the 4-hour chart has recaptured MA20, it immediately faces overhead pressure from MA30 near 4308. Meanwhile, fundamental pressures from Fed rate hikes, high Treasury yields, and returning Hormuz traffic argue against blindly chasing the upside at current levels.

Today is better suited for waiting for gold to test the 4300–4310 resistance zone before observing whether the market can achieve a genuine breakout.

Strategy Direction: Sell after rebound failure
Trading Signal: Sell (Conditional Trigger)
Confidence Index: 60 / 100
Core Observation Range: 4264–4310
Key Entry Reference: Around 4300–4308
Stop-Loss Reference: 4329
Target Profit Reference: Around 4260
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1 : 2

[Execution Details]
Gold has just experienced a swift rebound from near 4264 to around 4295 with strong short-term momentum, making direct shorting near 4290 unadvisable.
If prices continue pushing into the 4300–4310 zone but form long upper shadows, bearish engulfing patterns, fail to push higher, or briefly breach 4308 before quickly falling back, traders can watch for shorting opportunities following the rejection.

IV. Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.