I. Fundamental Analysis: Hawkish Expectations Dominate as Trump Rejects Iran Peace Proposal

Cleveland Fed President Hammack warned last Friday that persistently elevated inflation above target could lead the public to form expectations of "chronic high inflation," making it imperative for the Federal Reserve to ensure policy remains sufficiently restrictive.

Meanwhile, the US economy continues to exhibit robust resilience, with Treasury yields remaining elevated. Friday's market pricing for another rate hike in October climbed to 65.9%, serving as a primary driver of gold's pre-weekend selling pressure.

US-Iran tensions further escalated over the weekend. President Trump explicitly rejected Iran's proposed seven-day plan, which demanded the US lift maritime blockades, ease oil sanctions, and release frozen assets in exchange for resuming Strait of Hormuz navigation and restarting talks.

However, the diplomatic window has not entirely closed; Trump stated on Sunday that he expects ongoing contact with Iran this week. The Iranian military stated it has prepared for potential US attacks and warned that if Iran cannot trade normally, it will not permit other nations to freely utilize the strait.

Simultaneously, the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting two ballistic missiles and two drones on Saturday—with drones targeting Riyadh and missiles aimed at Khamis Mushait—indicating that Houthi attacks continue to expand.

II. Periodic Technical Analysis



1-Hour Timeframe (Intraday Short-Term: Weak Decline): Gold is currently trading around 4225.54, with an intraday high of 4280.27 and a low of 4214.32. Prices have clearly broken below MA1, MA20, and MA30. A rapid early session sell-off from near 4280.00 consecutively pierced the 4268.00 and 4240.00 zones, demonstrating further reinforcement of the 1-hour bearish structure. RSI(14) has dropped to 30.55, approaching oversold territory. Consequently, while the directional bias remains firmly bearish, following this sharp slide, the advantage of chasing shorts further around 4220.00 has diminished significantly.



4-Hour Timeframe (Medium-Term Structure: Reinforced Downside Structure): The 4-hour chart has broken below MA1, MA20, and MA30, accompanied by a large bearish candlestick that decisively invalidates the previous consolidation range near 4260.00–4290.00 to the downside. RSI(14) prints 33.80, entering a clearly weak zone while nearing oversold levels. The 4-hour timeframe has shifted further into a downward structure.

III. Trading Execution Plan

Both 1-hour and 4-hour structures are clearly bearish, while fundamentals remain pressured by Fed rate hike expectations, keeping the primary bias short.

However, having slid rapidly from near 4280.00 to around 4220.00 with the 1-hour RSI nearing oversold levels, chasing shorts directly at current levels is unadvisable. It is more rational to wait for a price rebound before assessing short entry opportunities.

Strategy Direction: Sell after rebound failure
Trading Signal: Sell (Conditional Trigger)
Confidence Index: 85 / 100
Entry Range: 4268.00—4298.00
Reference Median: 4283.00
Stop-Loss Reference: 4322.42
Target Profit Reference: 4204.17
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1 : 2.00

[Execution Details]
Current prices are already approaching the 4214–4204 support zone, making it inappropriate to continue chasing shorts around 4220.

Should gold rebound upward, focus closely on the 4268–4298 zone, where 4272–4288 corresponds with 4-hour moving average resistance. If prices enter this area and display long upper shadows, bearish engulfing patterns, failure to lift reaction highs, or a quick breakdown after briefly breaching 4280, traders can look for shorting signals.

If prices decisively sustain above 4298.00, short-term bearish dominance begins to fade; a further breakout and consolidation above 4322.42 invalidates the current short plan.

Conversely, if prices fail to mount a meaningful rebound and instead directly breach 4214.00, initial downside attention turns to 4204.17. Since prices are already near the target profit zone, chasing shorts directly after a breakdown is discouraged; waiting for a fresh corrective rebound structure is more prudent.

IV. Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.