I. Market News Analysis: US-Iran Talk Deadlock and Rate Hike Expectations Converge

US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz hit a deadlock as Trump rejected Iran's proposed seven-day plan to reopen the strait, while the Iranian foreign minister stated readiness for renewed conflict. International energy prices rebounded above $98, maintaining energy inflation pressure and keeping Fed rate hike expectations elevated, serving as the core catalyst for the precious metals plunge.

Iran previously submitted a plan via Qatar to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if necessary actions were taken by the US, but Trump rejected the proposal and told aides he might resume bombing Iran following the November US midterm elections. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded on the 27th that Iran is prepared for renewed conflict while keeping diplomatic contact open.

Brent benchmark prices rose over 0.8% to $98.23 per barrel. The Hormuz deadlock keeps energy costs elevated, raising market concerns that sticky inflation will force the Fed to continue raising rates, weighing heavily on non-interest-bearing precious metals.

CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in October rose to 64.8%, with a cumulative 50 bps hike by December reaching 50.9%. Cleveland Fed President Hammack noted that long-term Treasury yields are being pushed up by growth expectations, government debt concerns, and further rate hike expectations. "Higher for longer" interest rate expectations continue to suppress precious metals. Following the Fed's unanimous 25 bps rate hike in mid-September, multiple officials continue to emit hawkish signals, and markets have priced in an October rate hike as a high-probability event.

Markets this week focus on the US September non-farm payrolls report. Institutional analysts suggest that if October rate hike expectations drive further pullbacks in gold and silver, it will present a strategic dip-buying window.

II. Gold Technical Analysis



Daily Level: Today's Asian session opened at $4,279.03/oz, trading lower intraday with a clear bearish trend, hitting an intraday low of $4,151.01 and a high of $4,280.27, currently trading near $4,156.72/oz, down 2.99% intraday. Moving averages remain in a golden cross state, but prices have fallen back below the 80 moving average, awaiting new price and moving average resonance before positioning for medium-term opportunities.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages display a bearish alignment. Short positions can be initiated near $4,165.00 where prices broke out and confirmed with a candlestick, referencing the breakout high of $4,180.00 for stop-loss, exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio or tracking moving averages. Current price is near $4,156.72; if a pullback to $4,165 encounters resistance, short positions can be continued, while a breakout above $4,180.00 warrants exiting shorts to watch from the sidelines.

III. Silver Technical Analysis



Daily Level: Spot silver opened at $64.161/oz today, exhibiting a clear intraday bearish trend with strong selling momentum, continuously sliding to touch an intraday low of $60.968 and a high of $64.203, currently trading around $61.100/oz, down 4.93% intraday. Daily moving averages remain in a golden cross, but the medium-term long positions entered at $66.246 have triggered stop-losses, awaiting the next entry opportunity.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages display a bearish alignment. Short positions can be entered near $61.330 where morning prices broke phase lows with candlestick confirmation, referencing the breakout high of $61.640 for stop-loss, exiting at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio or tracking moving averages. Current price is near $61.100; if a pullback to $61.330 meets resistance, short positions can be maintained, while breaking above $61.640 prompts exiting shorts to observe.

IV. Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.