I. Market Overview: Rate Hike Expectations Cool Sharply, Low-Level Stabilization Ahead of NFP

Markets await the US September non-farm payrolls report tonight (consensus expects roughly 90k job additions, 4.10% unemployment, and 3.20% annualized wage growth). Recent remarks from several Fed officials suggest no immediate urgency to hike rates, pushing October rate hike odds back to the 26.00% – 28.00% range and easing downward pressure on gold.

The market has demonstrated resilience in the discount zone, trading near 4191.75. After puncturing and dropping to 4133.76 previously, prices quickly found buying interest, developing a short-term upward repair pattern with rising lows while riding a dynamic ascending support line.

II. Technical Analysis: 1-Hour Chart Maintains Ascending Structure



On the 1-hour timeframe, short-term moving averages provide support, with MA1 (4186.28), MA20 (4176.20), and MA30 (4174.07) fanning upward. Candle patterns continue to run above the dynamic ascending support line and the 4150.00 - 4170.00 FVG and order block resonance zone, keeping the local bullish structure intact.

Path Projections:
1. The initial intraday bullish target is the internal buy-side liquidity pool at 4210.00 - 4220.00 (Internal BSL).
2. If tonight's NFP data supports bulls in volume-breaking this resistance band, the rebound will extend toward the external liquidity zone at 4245.00 - 4260.00 (External BSL).
3. Stronger HTF resistance remains anchored at the overhead bearish order block zone of 4310.00 - 4315.00.

III. Key Price Levels

Major Strong Resistance Zone (HTF OB): 4310.00 - 4315.00
External Upper Liquidity Zone (External BSL): 4245.00 - 4260.00
Internal Upper Liquidity Zone (Internal BSL): 4210.00 - 4220.00
Immediate Intraday Resistance: 4196.78 - 4200.00
Core Pullback Support Zone (FVG + OB): 4150.00 - 4170.00
Dynamic Ascending Trendline Support: 4155.00 - 4165.00 (Rising dynamically)
Bullish Structure Invalidation Defense: 4150.00 (Morning low support at 4133.76)

IV. Trading Plan



1. Buy on Pullback Stabilization (Primary Strategy): Patiently wait for prices to pull back into the 4150.00 - 4170.00 support zone (overlap of dynamic support and order block). Enter upon stabilization or bullish engulfing signals on 5-minute or 15-minute charts. Set stop-loss below 4150.00, targeting 4210.00 - 4220.00 initially, and extending to 4245.00 - 4260.00 upon breakout.

2. Breakout Following Strategy: Current price is at 4191.75, hugging psychological resistance. Avoid blindly chasing highs ahead of the NFP release. If the 1-hour candle body decisively and effectively stabilizes above 4220.00 after data drops, follow the trend by going long toward 4245.00 - 4260.00.

3. Bullish Invalidation Condition: If prices break through the dynamic support line with volume and a 1-hour candle body closes below the 4150.00 baseline support, the oversold rebound structure is invalidated, and long logic ceases immediately, pivoting the market back into weak consolidation or downside exploration.

V. Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and autonomous decisions based on their own risk tolerance.