Analyst: Ma Guobang

I. Fundamental Analysis: Escalating Geopolitical Risks Reinvigorate Safe-Haven Bids

The international airport in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, was targeted by aerial strikes for two consecutive days.

The attack on the 10th left 13 dead and over 300 injured; on the 11th, Terminal 4 was struck again, sparking fires and causing 1 fatality and 11 injuries.

Houthi forces claimed responsibility for the Riyadh airport strikes, while also asserting attacks on Dammam airport and two Saudi Aramco petroleum facilities.

Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked.

Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Rezaei stated that Washington's response to Iran's seven conditions remains 'insufficient.'

Tehran affirmed that maritime transit will not resume and talks will not proceed until all conditions are satisfied.

Simultaneous airport strikes and navigation impasses keep regional transit and energy supply vulnerabilities front and center.

Meanwhile, Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate ceasefire regarding energy infrastructure.

However, Moscow has yet to confirm the accord.

Zelensky stated that Kyiv awaits concrete operational details from Washington, noting that Russian forces continue targeting Ukrainian energy facilities.

II. Periodic Technical Analysis: Rebound Remains Firm, Awaiting Confirmation at Resistance



1-Hour Timeframe Structure:
Gold currently trades at $4,208.48 per ounce, up $14.34 or 0.34% intraday.

The session opened at $4,200.90 against a prior close of $4,194.14, recording an intraday high of $4,217.26 and a low of $4,184.29.

Prices continue to hold above all three moving averages, which fan upward to indicate that short-term recovery dynamics remain intact.

However, the latest candle displays a visible upper shadow, pulling back toward 4208 and cautioning against chasing momentum into resistance.



Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Initial downside focus rests on the 4191.28—4197.73 moving average support cluster.

If pullbacks hold this band and print higher lows, the rebound maintains continuation prerequisites; note that moving averages evolve dynamically.

Overhead focus centers on the 4218—4236 zone, with the intraday peak at 4217.26 pressing directly into this barrier.

Only a decisive breakout accompanied by a successful retest would provide solid justification for extended gains; isolated spikes or wicks do not confirm breakthroughs.

Should the moving average cluster fail, secondary support lies at the session low of 4184.29 and the 4175—4183 band.

A sustained 1-hour close beneath 4175 would invalidate the dip-buying premise, warranting a reassessment of bullish strategies.

III. Trading Execution Plan

Strategy Direction: Buy upon confirmed pullbacks; avoid chasing highs prematurely
Focus Zones: Monitor 4191.28—4197.73 first; monitor 4175—4184.29 if breached
Trigger Conditions: Price halts declining, reclaims the observation zone, and establishes higher lows before entering
Targets: Initial target at 4217.26, secondary target at 4218—4236; observe price reaction at resistance without presuming a breakout
Invalidation: A sustained 1-hour close below 4175 cancels the dip-buying setup
Stop-Loss Reference: Anchored to entry placement and local swing lows (4175 marks scenario failure, not a rigid stop)

[Execution Details]
Remain patient on the sidelines if no stabilization confirmation appears.

Refrain from chasing impulsive rallies sparked by geopolitical headlines.

IV. Risk Warning

Abrupt strikes, maritime transit updates, and ceasefire statements can provoke sharp volatility, and technical bands risk being breached directly.

This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute guaranteed returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their risk tolerance.