I. News Event: Jobless Claims Drop to Lows as October Hike Odds Rise to 73.1%



Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted dropped by 1,000 to 197,000 for the week ending September 19, outperforming market expectations of 201,000 and remaining near multi-decade lows.

Meanwhile, continuing claims—a key indicator of hiring momentum—hovered around 1.719 million, near three-year lows, indicating that the labor market has stabilized without signs of widespread corporate layoffs.



Driven by robust employment data and a synchronized barrage of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, market expectations for a 25 bps rate hike in October surged to 73.1%.

II. 30-Minute Chart: Gold Pulls Back as Moving Averages Form Bearish Cross



As of 13:56 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,268.29 per ounce, down $6.38 or 0.15% intraday. From a moving average perspective, gold attempted an early session rally to $4,268.29 before encountering selling pressure and retreating rapidly, failing to establish a meaningful foothold above the $4,300 psychological handle.

Currently, MA1 ($4,267.36) is flatlining near lows, while MA20 ($4,276.85) and MA30 ($4,274.21) have formed a death cross in the $4,274–$4,277 zone and turned lower. Prices remain constrained beneath the moving average bands, hugging morning lows near $4,256.44 in weak consolidation, creating direct downward pressure.

III. 30-Minute Technical Indicators: Core Momentum Favors Bearish Control



On the 30-minute technical front, the overall assessment reads 'Sell' (1 bullish, 6 neutral, 4 bearish). Most indicators hover within neutral consolidation zones, though core momentum and trend indicators lean heavily toward downside control:

Core Relative Indicators Remain Neutral:
Relative Strength Index RSI(14) prints 46.22, trading in neutral-weak territory; Stochastic STOCH(9,6) reads 50.16 at the multi-directional equilibrium midline; Commodity Channel Index CCI(14) registers -49.98 in neutral territory.

Trend Momentum Indicators Disperse Bearishly:
Mid-term momentum indicator MACD(12,26) prints -4.53, staying below the zero line and maintaining a sell signal; Trend strength indicator ADX(14) reads 31.91, showing that the short-term downside trend retains directional consistency; Bull/Bear Power(13) registers -11.72 with a sell signal, reflecting dominant seller momentum.

Oscillator and Sensitive Indicators Avoid Extreme Oversold Extremes:
StochRSI(14) reads 48.53 in neutral consolidation; Williams %R prints -52.99 in the mid-neutral section, yet to reach extreme oversold levels; Ultimate Oscillator prints 43.99, sustaining a weak sell rating; Average True Range ATR(14) reads 16.83, exhibiting lower volatility and compression characteristics; Highs/Lows(14) records 0, remaining neutral.

IV. Summary

Today's market focus centers squarely on stronger-than-expected labor market data and surging long-term Treasury yields. Overnight US initial jobless claims unexpectedly falling to 197,000 erased prior market anxieties regarding rapid employment degradation. Combined with the 30-year Treasury yield breaking above 5.45% to multi-decade highs, bets that the Fed will maintain high interest rates or enact further hikes within the year have rebounded above 70%.

Although early morning declines in new housing sales reflected localized sensitivity to financing costs—briefly fueling a rebound test toward $4,295.77 in gold—strong macroeconomic data quickly capped the upside, preventing bulls from achieving a decisive breakout above the $4,300 handle.