I. London Gold Trades at $4,108.09, Remaining Capped Beneath Moving Averages



London gold traded at $4,108.09 per ounce, down $16.73 or 0.41% from the previous close of $4,124.82.

The session opened at $4,125.61, registering an intraday peak of $4,131.91 against a trough of $4,106.31.

Across moving averages, MA1 stands at $4,116.83, MA20 at $4,120.45, and MA30 at $4,122.62, with price action running below all three lines; RSI(14) registers at 37.79, reflecting subdued near-term momentum.

Rebound attempts over recent hours failed to reclaim the moving average cluster, leaving price hovering near session lows.

The $4,106.31 level marks the intraday floor, while the $4,116.83–$4,122.62 zone represents overhead resistance formed by the three moving averages; whether price can reclaim this band will determine any near-term structural improvement.

II. CPI Rebound Briefly Boosted October Rate Hike Odds



According to a Reuters report on October 14, the US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month-over-month, quickening from August's 0.4%, while the annual rate climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%.

Core CPI advanced 0.3% month-over-month, beating survey projections of 0.2%, with the year-over-year rate rising from 2.4% to 2.6%.

Shelter costs gained 0.4% during the month, illustrating that underlying inflation stickiness persists across key categories.

Following the release, Reuters noted greenback appreciation, rising Treasury yields, and broad equity pullbacks on Wall Street.

CME FedWatch data indicated that market pricing for an interest rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting rose from roughly 22% prior to the data to approximately 37%.

The print revived debate over an October move, prompting investors to reassess the restrictive impact of near-term rate trajectories on gold.

III. Survey Shows October Pause Expected While December Hike Bets Solidify



As of October 20, policy expectations have recalibrated.

According to a Reuters survey of economists conducted October 16–20, 94 out of 100 polled economists expect the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at the October 27–28 meeting, while all 100 respondents project a rate hike in December.

In the previous month's poll, fewer than 50% anticipated a December increase; the prospect of a brief pause followed by year-end tightening underscores inflation resilience as the central narrative.

The Fed previously raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%–4.00%—its first hike in three years—signaling potential further tightening against a backdrop of elevated inflation.

The October 20 Reuters report also reviewed that long-dated Treasury yields touched multi-year peaks on October 7 before easing roughly 25 basis points as October hike bets moderated, while 2-year yields experienced similar volatility amid heightened sensitivity to official remarks and inflation data.

The survey further showed that nearly 60% of economists anticipate the terminal policy rate reaching 4.00%–4.25%, with 38 of 92 respondents projecting at least two additional hikes, up from roughly 20% in September.

Mizuho Securities economist Alex Pelle remarked that economic strength and persistent inflation leave scope for further tightening, assessing the risk of a 50-basis-point hike in December as higher than an outcome where rates are left unchanged, with survey divisions centering primarily on rate hike magnitude and frequency.

IV. Gold Structure Remains Soft as Market Attention Pivots to October Meeting

London gold's 1-hour price action continues to trade beneath MA1, MA20, and MA30 with RSI(14) at 37.79, hovering near session lows and preserving a soft technical structure.

Monetary policy expectations reflect a two-stage outlook: economists broadly anticipate an October pause, but year-end December hike expectations have gained substantial traction.

This dual expectation continues to exert valuation headwinds on bullion as markets reprice the forward policy path.

The October 27–28 FOMC meeting will deliver critical forward policy signals.

Market participants will assess the policy statement and commentary to determine whether inflation persistence justifies year-end tightening.

Should inflation remain stubborn, December rate hike pricing will continue to drive the dollar, sovereign yields, and gold; the session low at $4,106.31 and the $4,116.83–$4,122.62 moving average band serve as verified structural reference zones.

(Compiled and Edited by Lucky Gold Global Limited)